A year after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky secured bipartisan support from the United States for its defense against Russia’s full-scale invasion, the outlook looks much more grim. A long-anticipated Ukrainian offensive in the south has made scant progress. Russia appears to have weathered international sanctions, for now, and has converted its economy into a war machine.
The mood in Moscow seems grimly determined: The goals of the “special military operation” will be achieved, and the fighting will continue until that happens.
As the long front line becomes ever more calcified, the Kremlin senses greater skepticism among Kyiv’s Western backers that Ukraine can recover the 17% of its territory still occupied by Russian forces.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is relishing the much more partisan atmosphere in Washington, where many in the Republican Party are questioning the purpose of sending Ukraine another $61 billion worth of aid as requested by President Joe Biden’s administration, assessing that it will achieve little on the battlefield.
At his first year-end news conference since the conflict began, Putin scoffed: “Ukraine produces almost nothing today, everything is coming from the West, but the free stuff is going to run out some day, and it seems it already is.”
Zelensky — who, by his own recent admission, is tired — has an ever-harder job as Ukraine’s chief salesman, with events in the Middle East diverting attention from Ukraine as the number-one international crisis.
On the first anniversary of the invasion, he predicted that “2023 will be the year of our victory!” He’s unlikely to make the same optimistic forecast for the coming year.
Read the full analysis here.
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