Israel-Hamas war rages as Palestinian death toll in Gaza rises from attacks

The silence on Lebanon’s border with Israel is deafening. After five days of near constant crossfire between fighters in Lebanon and Israeli forces, the guns seem to have largely gone quiet.

This remains one of the most important, and dangerous, fault lines in this volatile region. Following the surprise Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7, this frontier — largely calm since the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war — is even more charged with consequence.

Any conflict erupting here could pour fuel on the raging fire of the current Hamas-Israel war by drawing in the most powerful paramilitary group in the Middle East: Iran-backed Hezbollah.

Hezbollah’s political stance has unambiguously supported the Palestinian militants. It has sponsored rallies in support of Palestinian groups and has roundly condemned Israel’s large-scale airstrikes on Gaza.

At least 1,300 people have been killed in the Hamas attacks on Israel, while more than 1,500 people have been killed by Israeli strikes on Gaza since Saturday.

But it is still unclear whether Hezbollah will actively participate in this conflict. So far, it has adhered to its current rules of engagement and repeatedly stated that it will fire at Israel only when Lebanese territory, or its fighters, are fired upon. It has broadly stuck to that, despite the spiraling wider tensions.

Read the full analysis here.