A mess, or how preventing one shutdown caused the House to shut down

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Preventing a shutdown caused a shutdown.

A shutdown of the House of Representatives.

Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., advanced a plan to prevent a government shut down late last month. McCarthy’s gambit cost him his job. It also plunged the House into an unprecedented period of parliamentary sclerosis.

THE HITCHHIKER’S GUIDE TO WHY SCALISE’S SPEAKER MATH MAY NEVER WORK AND THE PUSH TO RESURRECT MCCARTHY

The House has now lacked a Speaker for nine days. And it doesn’t look like the House can fix this any time soon, not after the news that broke late Thursday.

House Majority Leader and now Speaker Designate Steve Scalise, R-La., and House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, squared off in a closed door, secret ballot contest among House Republicans Wednesday. The winner would become the GOP’s nominee for Speaker on the House floor.

Rep. Ken Buck, R-Colo., is not exactly a soothsayer. But when Scalise and Jordan presented their arguments for Speaker to House Republicans Tuesday night, Buck was skeptical anyone would wrap this up quickly.

“I’m not thrilled with either candidate. And I don’t know that they’re the only candidates who are going to arise,” said Buck. “I think that we will have other candidates that step forward if this becomes a mess tomorrow.”

Yours truly asked Buck why he thought the ballot would devolve into “a mess.”

“Oh, Chad,” responded Buck with a heavy sigh. “I have a sense that it will not be a clean vote.”

I pressed Buck further on what signal reporters should look for if the Speaker’s election officially crossed into “mess” territory.

“I think if at 3 or 4 in the afternoon if you don’t see white smoke, we’ve got a mess,” said Buck.

By 1:15 pm et Wednesday there was “white smoke” from room 1100 of the Longworth House Office Building. The GOP conference voted in favor of Scalise over Jordan. But it was far from clear that Scalise had anywhere close to the votes to win on the floor and become Speaker. And by late afternoon – as Buck forecast – Republicans had “a mess.”

Republicans voted. But the lawmaker they tapped couldn’t become Speaker – yet.

“Leader Scalise won and it’s not over,” said Rep. Max Miller, R-Ohio, an acolyte of his fellow Buckeye. “I’m still throwing my support behind Jim Jordan for speaker. I’m not going to change my vote now or any time soon on the House floor.”

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., said she would continue to back Jordan. That’s because Scalise is suffering from cancer.

“(Being) the Speaker of the House is the hardest job in Congress,” said Greene. “I want to see (Scalise) be able to put all of his time and energy into defeating cancer.”

Rep. Victoria Spartz, R-Ind., voted present in the GOP conference.

“I think it’s unhealthy for us not to have a debate in the conference until we get to consensus. I don’t think it should be on the floor,” said Spartz.

THE HITCHHIKER’S GUIDE TO HOW THE HOUSE DEADLOCK OVER A SPEAKER STANDS

When asked who she would support on the floor, Spartz replied “I’m not going to tell you because I don’t know yet.”

The vision of Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., was clearer than that of Spartz.

“I’m ready to vote for (Rep.) Chip Roy, R-Tex., as Speaker, y’all,” said Boebert. “I’m ready for somebody who’s gonna throw down.”

It was thought Scalise may try to go to the floor to win the Speakership immediately on Wednesday afternoon. Kind of like in football. Your team made a big play and your opponent is about to toss the challenge flag. So you snap the ball quickly before they contest the play. The only problem with Scalise is that he would have lost – badly – on the floor. A failed Speaker vote is precisely what rank-and-file Republicans hoped to avoid after the 15 round marathon to elect McCarthy in January. Moreover, a feeble vote tally by Scalise on the floor could euthanize his chances to become Speaker.

Rep. Steve Womack, R-Ark., endorsed forcing the issue.

“We need to go to the floor,” said Womack, adding that a roll call vote would help everyone know where Scalise or other candidates stood.

“Until you know, you don’t know,” said Womack.

But what about the prospect of a series of failed Speaker votes, ala McCarthy last winter?

“It didn’t really bother us in January,” said Womack.

The delta between the support for Scalise and what he needed to succeed on the floor shocked Capitol Hill veterans.

“This is bad,” said one senior House Republican leadership source. “I didn’t think it would get this bad.”

Scalise and Jordan met after the internal GOP election. The Ohio Republican then pledged his support to Scalise. But Jordan’s endorsement lacked juice. Many Republicans aligned with Jordan remained pledged to Jordan.

This infuriated those who were loyal to Scalise.

“The question is why we even have elections,” grumbled Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, R-Fla. “We had an election. There was a winner. And now we should all coalesce around that winner. And if we can’t do that for the person who got the highest number of votes, we sure as heck are not able to do that for someone who got less.”

Still, Scalise’s deficit remained steep.

“He may never get there,” sighed one source of Scalise’s steep climb to the Speakership. 

There’s no plan to hold a vote for Speaker on the floor. A failed vote has the potential to roil global financial markets. And, any failed vote only underscores Republican dysfunction, mirroring the January exercise with McCarthy.

“I don’t think he’s going to get it,” said one senior House Republican member to Fox about Scalise. “He came in so low.”

“We don’t have a Paul Ryan,” said one senior House Republican.

That’s a reference to former House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wisc. Ryan salvaged Republicans after former House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio resigned unexpectedly in 2015 and McCarthy failed to round up the votes for Speaker.

Let’s consider the Scalise math inside the House Republican Conference. He commanded only 113 ballots in the GOP Conference Wednesday. It was thought he may be north of 150. Had Scalise scored 112, the vote would have gone to a second ballot.

But examine where Scalise’s support came from. He secured the votes of the three non-voting delegates to Congress from American territories who are part of the Republican Conference but cannot vote for Speaker on the floor. Dels. Amata Radewagen, R-American Samoa, James Moylan, R-Guam and Resident Commissioner Jenniffer Gonzalez, R-Puerto Rico, all backed Scalise.

That trio boosted Scalise from 110 votes to 113. The support of the three delegates infuriated some House Republicans. Those members are eligible to vote in the conference. But they lack a floor vote because they are not full Members.

So where does this stand after Scalise dropped out late Thursday?

Fox is told the House may be in a stasis for days. Moreover, Fox is told there is no way to “undo” the Speaker vote in conference for Scalise.

“He’s the Speaker-designee,” said one knowledgeable source. “He’s there until he decides he’s not.”

So what to do?

One would be hard-pressed to say the House has never found itself in such a twisted position.

Some Republicans began wondering if they could resurrect McCarthy. Others began pondering an effort to grant temporary powers to Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry, R-N.C.

McHenry took the dais shortly after the House removed McCarthy from the Speakership last week. He hammered down the gavel with such anger that the head nearly spiraled off into the well of the chamber.

So far, McHenry’s aggressive slamming of the gavel has been his most significant act yet.

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McHenry may get more opportunities if Republicans fail to elect a Speaker soon.

Otherwise, the House remains a mess.

 

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Georgia ‘bought some pretty good players,’ Kentucky coach says after loss

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Certain schools have a clear advantage in the NIL game, one that college football seemed to insinuate this week.

Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops was pretty blunt after his Wildcats were rocked by No. 1 Georgia over the weekend, saying Georgia’s pockets have helped them in recruiting.

In his weekly radio show on Monday, Stoops was talking with an upset fan while discussing their 51-13 loss to the Bulldogs when Stoops seemed to take a shot at the Georgia program – and his own fan base.

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“I just encourage them (the fans) to donate more because that’s what those dudes are doing. I can promise you, Georgia, they bought some pretty good players. You’re allowed to these days,” Stoops said.

“We could use some help,” he continued. “That’s what they look like, you know what I mean, when you have 85 of them. I encourage anybody that’s disgruntled to pony up some more.”

Some Kentucky fans didn’t take kindly to the comments, but Stoops, who said his comments were “taken completely out of context,” reminded his supporters that he is thankful for any donation the university gets, whether they donate “one cent, one dollar or a lot of money.”

At the end of the day, he says he had good intentions for his program with regard to the comments.

NORTHWESTERN STATE’S RONNIE CALDWELL, 21, DEAD IN SHOOTING; UNIVERSITY CANCELS FOOTBALL GAME

“Really, just simply trying to rally people and in a way to move the needle,” he said. “Listen, I didn’t ask for this. [Georgia head coach) Kirby [Smart] didn’t ask for this. It’s the way of the world. And you want to move the needle, that’s one way to do it.”

Smart was made aware of the comments, but he said they were “much to do about nothing” and understood Stoops’ point of view.

“I think Mark is trying to garner interest for money from his fan base for his collective, and we’re all trying to do the same in terms of trying to get money for the collective,” Smart said. “Mark and I talked about NIL pregame, and we talked about it in our meeting. I’m not biting on that.”

The defending back-to-back national champions improved to 6-0 with the win while Kentucky suffered its first loss of the year after winning five straight to start the season.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

 

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White House: Humanitarian Corridor for Gaza Is ‘Right Thing to Do’

USA – Voice of America 

The White House echoed calls for humanitarian assistance and a corridor out of Gaza as Israel intensifies its military response to a stunning weekend attack by Palestinian militants, with the top U.S. diplomat landing in the region Thursday for a lightning round of shuttle diplomacy.  

Aid officials say the humanitarian needs are overwhelming, and analysts say there is no easy solution to the mounting concerns.  

“We are having conversations with Israeli officials about the continued need for humanitarian assistance for the Palestinian people, who are victims here as well,” said John Kirby, director of strategic communications for the National Security Council. 

“It’s the right thing to do,” Kirby said, in response to VOA’s question about the White House’s thoughts on the creation of a humanitarian corridor.   

White House officials have said this week that they are speaking to Egypt about a possible humanitarian corridor. There are only two official exit points from the Gaza Strip. An Israeli bombardment hit the main one, which goes into Egypt, on Tuesday. The other leads to Israel. 

Humanitarian groups and the United Nations have warned of a looming crisis as the Israeli military advances on the Gaza Strip, which is about double the size of Washington, D.C., and home to about 2 million people, according to CIA World Fact Book estimates.   

“There is not one immune centimeter in Gaza,” said Hamada El Bayeri of the United Nations’ Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. “So far there are no safe passages or corridors for the civilian population to use or for the humanitarian community also to use.”  

Analysts point to Egypt. 

“As a beneficiary of extensive U.S. support and as a security partner of Israel, Egypt must step up in the crisis,” said Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.  

“Helping bring in aid is a good start,” he said. “But a humanitarian corridor, if established, should also enable the departure of Palestinian civilians — including, temporarily, into Egyptian territory — so as to spare lives and give Israel the chance to eradicate Hamas. At the same time, Israel should condition the provision of aid on Hamas’ release of hostages.”    

Secretary of State Antony Blinken will travel from Israel to Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — all in the space of four days — in an echo of his predecessor Henry Kissinger’s sprint through the region to manage the fallout of Israel’s 1973 war.  

The U.S. State Department said Blinken aims to “engage regional partners on efforts to help prevent the conflict from spreading, secure the immediate and safe release of hostages and identify mechanisms for the protection of civilians.”  

Mirette Mabrouk, who leads the Egypt program at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, told VOA that the idea of a Gaza-to-Egypt corridor is fraught.     

“It sounds like the kind of thing that no one would object to,” she said, speaking to VOA on Zoom. “I mean, it sounds wonderful. The problem is, what that means is, the Israelis would like the Gazans to exit Gaza and move into Egypt. And if that were to happen, history tells us that they will never ever be allowed back in.”  

And, she said: “I’ve been speaking to Egyptian diplomats over the last two days, and security people. My understanding is, this just isn’t going to happen.”  

Mabrouk recommended another course.  

“If we can be persuaded for a cease-fire,” she said, “then at the very, very least, we can see where we go from here. Because otherwise, it’s honestly a zero sum. It’s a zero-sum game.”  

U.S. President Joe Biden has not spoken publicly of a cease-fire since the crisis began Saturday.   

Jorge Agobian contributed to this report.

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Taylor Swift decked out in Chiefs gear as she returns to Arrowhead amid Travis Kelce dating rumors

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Taylor Swift is back at Arrowhead.

Amid rumors she’s dating Kansas City Chiefs star tight end Travis Kelce, Swift appeared at the game about an hour before kickoff against the Denver Broncos.

She walked into the game with a Chiefs jacket slung around her shoulder. 

Then, she appeared in a luxury suite with Donna Kelce, Travis’ mother. It’s the third time Swift and Kelce have shared the same suite since rumors started to fly about Swift and Travis dating.

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Kelce was questionable to play in the game with an ankle issue but was active. He was seen jumping around on the field, and it didn’t appear the ankle was giving him much trouble.

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It’s unclear how much coverage Amazon Prime will give Swift as she cheers on the Chiefs. Al Michaels provided some insight in an interview with Sports Illustrated’s Jimmy Traina on his “Traina Thoughts” podcast.

“What we’re gonna do tonight, everything in moderation,” Michaels told the outlet. “Our crew talked about it this morning. You can’t make a sideshow the show. The vast majority of the audience are tuning in to watch a football game. 

FOX NEWS POLL: FAVORABLE RATINGS AMONG KEY POLITICAL FIGURES (AND TAYLOR SWIFT!)

“There are people — I don’t know how many, it could be a sizable number — but it’s certainly not a majority, that if you trained the camera on her all night long, they’d be satisfied with that. This is not what we’re going to do.

“There might be an appropriate shot or a couple. I don’t know what the number is going to be. If Kelce scores six touchdowns, who the hell knows what we’re going to do? But, for the most part, just in moderation. The game is still the important element here, by far. That’s our thought. After that, you sort of make it, one of my favorite words — farcical.”

The legendary broadcaster stressed again, “Moderation.”

While it’s clear Kelce wanted to keep his private life private, it doesn’t appear that will be the case.

 

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Scalise drops out of speaker race

Congress 

The House GOP’s pick for speaker, Steve Scalise, announced Thursday he will no longer seek the gavel as he confronted a likely insurmountable vote shortage.

While Scalise had won a majority of votes in an internal GOP ballot a day earlier, he faced an ever-growing list of Republicans who vowed to support only his opponent, Rep. Jim Jordan, on the floor. The Ohio Republican is now expected to make another run for the position.

“Clearly, not everybody is there. And there are still schisms that have to get resolved,” Scalise told reporters, minutes after revealing his decision to a closed-door conference meeting.

The Louisiana Republican’s decision stunned many of his colleagues who expected him to continue whipping votes across the conference through at least the weekend. The conference is now expected to pivot to Jordan in its frantic scramble to appoint a speaker, more than a week after former speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted, though private doubts remain in the conference that Jordan won’t be able to secure the support either. Some still believe a third contender is the more likely option.

In his remarks to reporters, the Louisiana Republican was blunt about his own frustration with the various forces within the conference that kept him from lining up those 217 votes.

“There’s some folks that really need to look in the mirror the next couple of days and decide are we going to get back on track? Are they going to try to pursue their own agenda? You can’t do both. And I think we’re going to get there,” Scalise said.

“We still need to get a speaker and I’m going to continue to push as hard as we can to make that happen as quickly as it has to happen. But it wasn’t gonna happen today. It wasn’t going to happen tomorrow. It needs to happen soon.”

One Republican who emerged from conference, Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), made clear he would push to elect Jordan on the floor.

“I voted for Jim Jordan in the conference election yesterday and I remain committed to doing everything I can to help elect him the next Speaker of the House,” Banks said. “He is a conservative fighter and a leader who can unite our party. Republicans have a lot of work to do and if Jim Jordan is in the Speaker’s chair we will get it done.”

Scalise, meanwhile, is expected to remain in his post as No. 2 Republican.

“He’s gonna still be a majority leader. I’ve been in that exact same position that he was back in 2015,” former speaker Kevin McCarthy told reporters Thursday.

Asked if he would he supported Jordan, McCarthy said: “I like Jim a lot.”

Olivia Beavers contributed.

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Scalise drops out of race for House speaker

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House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., has dropped out of the race for House speaker. 

He announced the decision following a closed-door meeting with fellow House Republicans Thursday evening.

Scalise won a Republican conference vote for the nomination of speaker earlier this week over Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, but many GOP members said they would not vote for him on the House floor.

DEMS MOUNT PRESSURE ON 18 REPUBLICANS IN BIDEN-WON DISTRICTS AHEAD OF NEW HOUSE SPEAKER VOTE

Following the conference meeting Rep. Ralph Norman, R-S.C., said he was “not surprised” to see Scalise leave the race. He expressed his support for Jordan and said he thinks he can reach the required votes to become speaker.

Rep. Jim Banks, R-Ind., who supported Jordan in the conference vote, reacted with a statement saying he remained “committed to doing everything I can to help elect him the next Speaker of the House.”

The race to fill the role that serves as the second place in the presidential order of succession came about after the House voted 216-210 to remove former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., from the position last week.

REPUBLICANS GAETZ, GREENE BLAST PARTY’S CLOSED-DOOR SPEAKER DISCUSSIONS

This is a developing story. Check back here for updates.

Fox News’ Tyler Olson, Matteo Cina and Chad Pergram contributed to this report.

 

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LAURA INGRAHAM: Corporate America and wealthy donors are complicit in the death of higher education

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FOX News host Laura Ingraham takes aim at philanthropists supporting higher education institutions that condone support for Hamas on “The Ingraham Angle.”

POPE AFFIRMS ISRAEL HAS ‘RIGHT’ TO ‘DEFEND THEMSELVES,’ MOURNS INNOCENTS IN GAZA 

LAURA: How did we get here? And what does this mean? Victor Davis Hanson, as usual, nails it, saying “[T]he overt support for Hamas killers by the diversity, equity and inclusion crowd on a lot of campuses exposes to Americans the real moral and intellectual rot in higher education.” And remember, these groups wouldn’t be as bold, certainly not as bold as they are if they hadn’t gotten recognition and at least tacit support from the ivory tower crowd. And I love how all these college presidents and deans are now trying to cover their tracks, rushing out statements, distancing themselves from these pro-Hamas organizations on campus, but I’m not buying it for one minute. They’ve always known that these groups supported political violence. 

In 2020, the BLM riots, and now the savage killing by Hamas. University officials either agree with the anti-American supporters of violence or they’re just too afraid to challenge them. Meanwhile, corporate America and wealthy donors shower these universities with billions and billions of dollars. Philanthropic giving to higher ed increased by 12.5% last year to $59.5 billion. Three donations totaling $431 million went to Harvard in one recent year alone. That’s from Michael Bloomberg, Bill Gates and the UAE. Now do the billionaires, at least the Americans do they want their money back? You know they should, because in a way, they’re complicit in the death of higher education and now these woke institutions are graduating activists incapable of critical thinking, young people who revel in being perpetually enraged and aggrieved. They’re all victims.

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For more Culture, Media, Education, Opinion and channel coverage, visit foxnews.com/m

 

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'This isn’t about land': American in Israel defiant against ‘barbaric’ Hamas, declares she’s ‘never leaving’

An American living in Israel has been running in and out of bomb shelters with her husband and two young kids since Hamas’ deadly attack and pleads for the world to choose the side of humanity over terror.

“Thousands of my brothers and sisters were slaughtered, murdered, raped, decapitated, kidnapped,” Esther Taub Schlesinger, an American living in central Israel, told Fox News. 

AMERICAN LIVING IN ISRAEL PLEADS FOR THE WORLD TO STAND BY ISRAEL, CHOOSE THE SIDE OF ‘HUMANITY’. WATCH:

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“I am scared for my life right now,” she said. “It feels never ending. It’s truly terrifying and we need your support. We need the world’s support.”

The Israeli government declared war against Hamas on Saturday after the terrorist group fired thousands of rockets out of Gaza and invaded, killing over 1,200 Israelis and taking hostages, including soldiers, women, children and elderly civilians. Israel’s retaliatory assault on Gaza has killed more than 1,400 people, according to Palestinian authorities. 

Israel-Hamas war destruction

Hamas’ deadly surprise attack on Israel left hundreds of innocent civilians dead. Countless others were taken hostage and brought to Gaza.  (Getty Images)

Schlesinger was born in America but moved to Israel nearly two decades ago. She works as a personal trainer and lives with her husband and two toddlers. But as of a few days ago, her family has been forced to stay in their apartment only to run in and out to get to the bomb shelter or get groceries. 

“We were terrified,” Schlesinger said about the initial attack. “We were scared.”

AMERICAN IN ISRAEL SAYS HAMAS ABDUCTING HER FAMILY IS A FATE WORSE THAN DEATH

She told Fox News she thought Hamas planned the Saturday ambush on the joyous Jewish holiday of Simchat Torah on purpose. Many Jewish people who celebrate the holiday don’t have their phones and were praying inside their synagogues, she said. 

“That’s just a small, tiny example showing how much Hamas hates us,” Schlesinger said. “This isn’t about land. This is literally about them wanting to wipe us off the face of the Earth. There’s just example after example of this where we have experienced just that hatred and that pure evil.”

Hamas fighters have been accused of brutal acts of terrorism, including raping women and beheading civilians. They also ambushed a music festival and shot point-blank into the crowd, while other terrorists waited at the exits to kill people fleeing.

American living in Israel

Esther Taub Schlesinger, an American living in Israel, holds back tears as she describes the fear she felt during Hamas’ deadly surprise attack on Saturday, which killed hundreds of innocent Israelis. She says the violent rhetoric from supporters of Palestine following the attack has been gut-wrenching to see.  (Fox News Digital )

“We can’t even grasp this as human beings,” Schlesinger said. “This is a massive amount of complete barbaric humans that came in and slaughtered us, raped us, decapitated us. They decapitated babies.”

HAMAS ATTACK TRAPS WOMEN IN ISRAEL BOMB SHELTER FOR 36 HOURS: ‘PEOPLE NEED TO KNOW WHAT HAPPENED HERE’

“We’re not talking about humane behavior,” she continued. “The fact that this is happening to my people … it’s heart-wrenching, and it’s not over.”

The American-born Israel resident said what upset her the most was the violent rhetoric against Jews. She hoped the circulating footage of Hamas’ brutality would show people why the Israelis had to retaliate against the terrorist group.

“It’s pure antisemitism that’s rooted into people’s bones,” Schlesinger told Fox News. “I need the world to wake up. I need the world to understand. We are human beings, and we need help.”

Pro-Palestinian and pro-Israeli demonstrators gather in New York following Hamas’ deadly attack that led to Israel’s declaration of war.  (Getty Images)

‘DESPICABLE’: STUDENTS CONDEMN HARVARD STUDENT GROUPS’ LETTER BLAMING ISRAELIS FOR OWN MASSACRE

“Now seeing the barbaric, inhumane way that Hamas acts, now do you believe us?” Schlesinger asked while holding back tears. “The Jewish people have been trying to tell you for decades what they’re capable of and why we need to protect ourselves and why we need to keep them away from us and out of Israel.”

Pro-Palestinian and pro-Israeli protests and vigils took place in several U.S. major cities following Hamas’ deadly attack. Many rallies saw opposing protesters in heated clashes, with some spewing violent rhetoric against Jews or Palestinians. At a rally in Cambridge, Massachusetts, a pro-Palestinian protester called Israel supporters “Nazis” and “pigs.”

A MAN CALLS PRO-ISRAEL SUPPORTERS ‘NAZIS’ AND ‘PIGS’ AT CAMBRIDGE RALLY. WATCH:

“It’s choosing humanity,” she said. “If you support Hamas you are supporting inhumane destruction.”

The U.S. supplied Israel Defense Forces with ammunition, equipment and other resources and moved aircraft closer to Israel following the Hamas terrorist attacks, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin told Fox News in a statement on Sunday. President Joe Biden said on Tuesday that the U.S. will “continue to stand united, supporting the people of Israel” and would make sure they don’t run out of critical assets

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Schlesinger pleaded for more support from the entire world as the Israel-Hamas war escalates. But the American-born Israeli said despite the declaration of war, she would not leave her home. 

“Israel is resilient,” Schlesinger told Fox News. “We are so strong. We have been through so much. We have made it through the Holocaust, and we will make it through this.”

“We will protect ourselves,” she added. “We will defend ourselves. We will make sure that we are safe. We are never leaving.” 

Ramiro Vargas contributed to the accompanying video.

source

Why this earnings season could help stabilize the shaky market rally

A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link.



CNN
 — 

The third-quarter earnings season begins on Friday, marking the next test for this year’s wobbly US stock market rally.

Investors had a low bar for earnings during the first half of the year, making it easier for companies to handily beat expectations, but that bar’s getting higher for the back half of the year.

The benchmark S&P 500 index has slid roughly 5% from its most recent peak in late July, as hot economic data, signs of inflation edging up and the Federal Reserve’s indication that it will keep interest rates higher for longer spooked investors and sent bond yields surging.

“Investor sentiment is fickle. If companies fail to beat loftier future earnings expectations this quarter, faltering sentiment could send stocks reeling,” wrote Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors’ US exchange-traded funds business, in a note.

Analysts expect a 0.4% year-over-year decline in third-quarter earnings for companies in the S&P 500 index, according to FactSet. If that pans out, it’ll mark the fourth consecutive quarter of earnings declines for the index.

On the other hand, a lack of corporate news recently has helped stoke the uncertainty brewing in the market, says Jay Hatfield, chief executive at Infrastructure Capital Management. That means that as investors hear straight from the horse’s mouth what’s going on, some fear could ease and in turn lift stocks.

“We were cautious while earnings season was not going on, and now we’re getting bullish,” Hatfield said.

Banks commence the earnings season. A slew of big banks report Friday, most notably economic bellwether JPMorgan Chase. Analysts expect America’s biggest bank to report earnings per share of $3.90 and revenue of $39.57 billion for the third quarter, according to Refinitiv.

The bank’s performance so far this year bodes well for its ability to meet those expectations — which in turn could set up a promising start for third-quarter earnings season.

JPMorgan Chase reported record revenue of $41.3 billion last quarter and earnings of about $4.37 per share, excluding significant expenses like its purchase of collapsed regional lender First Republic Bank. That came after the bank roundly beat profit and revenue expectations for the first quarter.

Investors will also be on alert for comments from chief executive Jamie Dimon about the state of consumer spending, as worries that the Fed’s higher-for-longer interest rate stance could squeeze the economy loom over Wall Street.

Dimon said last quarter that consumer spending remains healthy despite cash buffers slowly draining. But he also warned that the economy faces several challenges that threaten its resilience, including inflation, high US government debt and the Fed’s efforts to shrink its balance sheet and tame inflation.

“I don’t know if it’s going to lead to a soft landing, a mild recession or a hard recession,” Dimon said during a July call with journalists.

Citigroup, Wells Fargo and BlackRock also report earnings Friday.

ExxonMobil has agreed to buy Pioneer Natural Resources, a major shale oil producer in a deal that will more than double Exxon’s footprint in the Permian Basin in the southwest United States, reports my colleague Chris Isidore.

Though it’s the largest US oil company, ExxonMobil was relatively slow to develop shale oil as the rest of the industry used it to greatly increase US oil production in the last decade. Pioneer is the largest producer in the Permian Basin, with 850,000 net acres in the area around Midland, Texas. ExxonMobil has 570,000 net acres in the Delaware and Midland Basins.

ExxonMobil’s Permian production volume would more than double to the equivalent of 1.3 million barrels of oil a day as a result of the deal, according to the company.

“Pioneer is a clear leader in the Permian with a unique asset base and people with deep industry knowledge. The combined capabilities of our two companies will provide long-term value creation well in excess of what either company is capable of doing on a standalone basis,” said ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods.

Read more here.

Two new bills meant to protect children’s mental health online by changing the way they are served content on social media and by limiting companies’ use of their data will be introduced in the New York state legislature, state and city leaders said Wednesday.

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul and New York Attorney General Letitia James made the announcement at the headquarters of the United Federation of Teachers Manhattan, joined by UFT President Michael Mulgrew, State Sen. Andrew Gounardes, Assemblywoman Nily Rozic and community advocates.

“Our children are in crisis, and it is up to us to save them,” Hochul said, comparing social media algorithms to cigarettes and alcohol. “The data around the negative effects of social media on these young minds is irrefutable, and knowing how dangerous the algorithms are, I will not accept that we are powerless to do anything about it.”

The “Stop Addictive Feeds Exploitation (SAFE) for Kids Act” would limit what New York officials are calling the harmful and addictive features of social media for children, report my colleagues Athena Jones and Brian Fung.

The act would allow users under 18 and their parents to opt out of receiving feeds driven by algorithms designed to harness users’ personal data to keep them on the platforms for as long as possible. Those who opt out would receive chronological feeds instead, like in the early days of social media.

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Scalise drops out of speaker’s race

Congress 

The House GOP’s pick for speaker, Steve Scalise, announced Thursday he will no longer seek the gavel as he confronted a likely insurmountable vote shortage.

While Scalise had won a majority of votes in an internal GOP ballot a day earlier, he faced staunch resistance from multiple Republicans who vowed to support only his opponent, Rep. Jim Jordan, on the floor.

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