California’s oil, gas workers will find new jobs but need help: report

Just In | The Hill 

As California ramps up its transition away from fossil fuels, most oil and gas workers will be able to find work in other industries, a new report has found.

Two out of three oil and gas employees — 67 percent — are highly likely to find jobs in their current occupation but in a different sector, according to the report, released on Tuesday by the nonpartisan Gender Equity Policy Institute.

These workers will have no need for retraining, due to a high demand for their skills over the next decade, the report authors determined.

Meanwhile, all the remaining workers who are unlikely to find work within their occupation have skills that are transferable to similar roles without a need for retraining, according to the report.

Countering this optimism, however, the authors also estimated that more than one in four workers — 27 percent — will earn less in their new occupations. Meanwhile, they found that just 7 percent are expected to earn more.

“State and federal climate investments are set to create around four million new jobs in California in coming years,” Nancy Cohen, president of the Los Angeles-based Gender Equity Policy Institute, said in a statement.

“But as the transition away from fossil fuels advances, oil and gas jobs will decline — and we must make sure the impacted workers are not left behind,” she added. 

Ensuring an equitable transition will require California to make what Cohen described as “an affordable investment” in these employees.

Today, California’s oil and gas workforce includes 45,946 individuals — of whom 18 percent are employed in core oil and gas extraction and production jobs, according to the report.

About 37 percent have office jobs and 45 percent are employed in other production, construction or transportation roles.  Meanwhile, another 13,233 people hold executive and professional positions in these industries.

To ensure an equitable transition for members of the oil and gas workforce, the report authors suggest providing income subsidies of three years duration for each employee, plus relocation funds for those who might need to move.

Such support could be funded by the state of California for an annual cost of between $27.3 million and $68.9 million, according to the report. This range, the authors contended, differs from previous studies that put that cost between $358 million and $424 million.

The $27.3 million to $68.9 million range accounts for between one and three years of support for the approximately 8,100 workers who could face displacement into lower-paying jobs over the next 10 years.

“Our state has the resources to ensure that oil and gas workers land on their feet as we all say goodbye to fossil fuels,” Woody Hastings, energy program manager at The Climate Center, a California think tank, said in a statement.

“California can and must equitably transition workers, their families, and the communities that currently depend on oil and gas operations,” Hastings added.

The 2022 state budget has already allocated $40 million for a pilot oil and gas worker displacement fund, as well as $20 million to train workers to participate in well-capping of abandoned oil wells, according to the report.

Federal funding from the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the Inflation Reduction Act will also be supplementing these state-level investments, the authors noted.

Cohen, from the Gender Equity Policy Institute, stressed the need to implement plans for an equitable transition backed by transparent research.

“Support will be needed for some oil and gas workers, and to provide that, policymakers need clarity on who is at risk, and the best path available to support them,” she said.

​Equilibrium & Sustainability, Policy, California, Climate change, oil and gas, Oil drilling Read More 

[Sport] Golfer's Masters invite sent to wrong person

Scott Stallings with the Farmers Insurance Open trophy in 2014
Scott Stallings’ most recent PGA Tour win was at the Farmers Insurance Open in 2014

US golfer Scott Stallings was handed a shock after discovering his Masters invitation had been sent to another person of the same name.

The 37-year-old tweeted he had been “checking the mailbox five times a day” for his invitation before receiving a direct message from another Scott Stallings.

The three-time PGA Tour winner posted the message from his namesake, which included: “I’m 100% sure this is NOT for me. I play but wow! Nowhere near your level.”

The message began: “Hi Scott. My name is Scott Stallings as well and I’m from GA (Georgia). My wife’s name is Jennifer too!!

“I received a FedEx today from the Masters inviting me to play in the Master’s Tournament April 6-9, 2023.

“It’s a very nice package complete with everything needed to attend. I think we have some confusion because of our names, our wife’s names and geographical location.”

He then attached a picture of the invitation adding: “I’m really not kidding I promise.”

Stallings’ tweet was viewed more than 10 million times on the social media site and many of the replies called on the golfer to invite his namesake to the Masters as his guest.

Others also urged the ‘other’ Scott Stallings to caddie for the professional at the traditional Par-3 contest held on the Wednesday before each Masters.

Stallings is ranked 54th in the world and his last PGA tour victory came in 2014 at the Farmers Insurance Open.

The 87th Masters tournament takes place at Augusta National from April 6-9.

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[World] Kevin McCarthy struggles for support ahead of Speaker vote

Kevin McCarthyImage source, Getty Images

Republican Kevin McCarthy is struggling to secure enough support to ensure he wins a vote to become the new Speaker of the House of Representatives.

The Californian congressman must win a majority vote in the House on Tuesday to get the role.

But a group of Republicans are refusing to back him, despite him making a number of last-minute concessions.

Mr McCarthy cannot afford to lose more than a handful of votes from his party if he is to win the vote.

The role of Speaker of the House is one of the most important jobs in US politics.

They control the legislative agenda and timetable in the House, as well as who sits on various committees.

Failure to win the speakership on the first attempt could therefore weaken both Mr McCarthy and the Republicans’ credibility, hampering House Republicans’ plans of acting quickly to investigate the Biden administration as well as President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter Biden.

How did we get here?

In November’s mid-term elections, the Republican Party narrowly secured control of the House of Representatives (the lower chamber of the US Congress) from the Democrats, winning 222 of the 435 seats.

Following the result, the Republican Party’s leader, Mr McCarthy, ran to be the party’s candidate for the new Speaker, and won with 188 votes.

Since then, he has been working to gain the support of Republicans ahead of the opening of the new Congress on Tuesday, when the vote will take place. 35 new US senators will also be sworn into the Senate.

If Mr McCarthy wins, he will replace Democrat Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House.

But some right-wing Republicans are refusing to support him, making his bid for the speakership less certain.

The narrowness of the Republicans’ majority in the House means that Mr McCarthy can only afford to lose four of their votes if he is to secure a majority of 218 and secure the position of speaker.

No Democrats are likely to vote for him.

Why are some Republicans refusing to back him?

Those who oppose Mr McCarthy’s bid for the speakership are Trump-supporting hardliners, dubbed the “Never Kevins” by some.

They include representatives Bob Good and Matt Gaetz, who believe Mr McCarthy represents too much of the mainstream and the establishment.

“I won’t be voting for Kevin McCarthy tomorrow. He’s part of the problem. He’s not part of the solution,” Mr Good told Fox News on Monday. “There’s nothing that indicates to me that he’s going to change his pattern since he’s been in leadership, where he’s part of the swamp cartel.”

“I think he’s just a shill of the establishment,” said Mr Gaetz in an interview with the Daily Caller website last week. “I think that Kevin McCarthy is little more than a vessel through which lobbyists and special interests operate.”

Some may also remain wary of his previous stance towards former President Donald Trump following the Capitol riots in 2021, having originally been critical of the then-President, who he said bore responsibility for the attack.

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Then and now: Kevin McCarthy on Donald Trump and the Capitol riot

What concessions has Mr McCarthy made?

Despite the opposition, Mr McCarthy said he remained confident he would win Tuesday’s vote. “I think we’re going to have a good day tomorrow,” he told reporters on Monday.

But he has had to make a number of concessions in order to try to win over Republicans who remain opposed to him or who remain on the fence.

One of the key demands Republicans have been asking for would make it easier for a small number of representatives to challenge his role as Speaker – weakening his own position in the House.

Mr McCarthy initially refused to acquiesce to the demand. But with time running out to win opposing Republicans over, he unveiled a package of rule changes on Sunday, including changes to how the Speaker could be removed. The concession means that any five Republican party members can call for the Speaker’s removal at any time.

These, however, did not satisfy some right-wing Republicans he was attempting to win over.

A letter released on Sunday, signed by nine Republicans, said Mr McCarthy’s concessions come “almost impossibly late to address continued deficiencies”.

“Thus far, there continue to be missing specific commitments with respect to virtually every component of our entreaties, and thus, no means to measure whether promises are kept or broken,” it said.

What happens if no one wins a majority?

No business can be undertaken within the House – not even the swearing in of new members of Congress – until a candidate has been chosen.

So if Mr McCarthy does not win the first vote, members of the House will keep taking part in successive votes until someone wins a majority.

Mr McCarthy has vowed to fight on even if he does not win immediately. And there is no other obvious candidate who could viably challenge for the speakership.

But having to hold more than one vote to decide on the speaker would be embarrassing – not only for Mr McCarthy, but for the Republican party too.

No other candidate running for the speakership for the first time has failed to win in the first vote for over 100 years, so such a failure could weaken the Republicans’ credibility within the House.

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Disney Patents Sensational Tech Idea to Further Delight Guests

TheStreet 

The Magic Kingdom seeks to enhance its guests’ visits using technology that personalizes the experience.

Both virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) technologies offer promising implications for the future of entertainment, commerce, education and other pursuits.

Virtual reality involves the creation of an entire fantasy experience, an alternate here-and-now that is freed and unhinged from the real world.

With AR, a user’s experience is based on the actual physical world, but one that is enhanced with features that, for example, can be projected through a phone’s camera or video viewer.

More advanced equipment is required for VR, including a headset connected to a computer. Users will also need sufficient room to play indoors (typically 4-8 feet). AR, however, is easily available via smartphone and much more accessible because of it.

Some AR Products Have Experienced Great Success

The first wildly popular example of an AR game experience, it could be argued, was the “Pokémon GO” craze that began in 2016.

Here’s how it worked: When a user played the game, they viewed the world around them through their phones. AR technology was used to create Pokemon in this space, making it appear as if the creatures were in the real world. Different locations also yielded different Pokemon, which drove players to explore real-world areas.

That first year was the game’s most successful by way of active players, but it still remains relatively popular. Pokémon is partially owned by Nintendo  (NTDOY) – Get Free Report, which handles its distribution efforts.

AR can be used for much more than just games, however. Another successful AR implementation was Home Depot’s  (HD) – Get Free Report Project Color App from 2015, which displayed how a paint color would look in a user’s home.

More recently, in May 2022, Netflix  (NFLX) – Get Free Report used an AR experience to market its series “Stranger Things.” Games using the technology simulated the experience of being in the show’s locations and circumstances.

Disney Patents an AR Idea

Now, Disney  (DIS) – Get Free Report is pursuing a strategy to take advantage of similar AR technology to enhance its theme park experience for guests, detailed in a patent filed December 2022.

“The patent describes a gameplay system within a theme park that allows guests to augment their ride experience via themed merchandise,” Blog Mickey explains. “Disney describes the problem as a ride or experience that doesn’t necessarily provide an individual experience.”

Disney’s goal in developing this technology and acquiring the patent appears to be as a way to personalize a park visitor’s experience with interactive elements.

“The patent describes the themed merchandise as an ‘augmenting object’ and describes a gameplay system that recognizes and reacts to the augmenting object,” the blog says

A park guest, once having purchased the necessary merchandise, would then program it to select particular skill sets that would provide a more personalized experience.

“The patent aims to allow for a broader definition of an augmenting object such as one that can be worn or held,” describes Blog Mickey.  “A general object identification system would identify the augmenting object and then modify the experience for the participant wearing or holding the object.”

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Millions are at risk of tornadoes in the South as a winter storm threatens intense snow and dangerously icy conditions in the Midwest



CNN
 — 

A potent winter storm that turned deadly in California is now threatening powerful tornadoes in the South and heavy snow, sleet and freezing rain in the Midwest.

About seven million people are under flood alerts across the Mississippi River Valley as the storm that brought heavy rain California continues to head east. Flood watches spread from the Texas-Louisiana border north along the Mississippi River Valley into southern Indiana and Illinois.

Widespread radar estimated totals across the area range from 1 to 3 inches, but isolated areas where storms have trained over the same location have seen estimated totals as high as 5 inches.

A moderate risk of excessive rainfall – level 3 of 4 – remains across the lower Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys, where rainfall rates could reach 1 to 2 inches per hour. This area could still see 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts, by Tuesday morning. Widespread rainfall across the remainder of the area Tuesday morning is likely to be between 1 to 2 inches.

A tornado watch has been issued for eastern Oklahoma, southeast Kansas and northwest Arkansas until 10 p.m. CT, according to the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center. A third watch is in effect for southeastern Arkansas, northeastern Louisiana and western Mississippi until 3 a.m. CT.

And tornadoes are not the only risk in the region. Large hail – potentially up to 2 inches in diameter – and thrashing winds of up to 70 mph are possible “well into the night across much of the area,” the Storm Prediction Center warned.

Anyone in areas at risk of tornadoes should seek safe shelter immediately, said Brad Bryant, meteorologist-in-charge at the National Weather Service office in Shreveport, Louisiana.

“If you wait around for a warning to be issued, it is too late,” Bryant said Monday. “You need to have a safe shelter plan in place in advance of these storms.”

He encouraged anyone needing help – especially those living in mobile homes – to contact local emergency mangers or law enforcement for sheltering options.

“Since mid-November we’ve had three rounds of severe weather and we have had fatalities, most of which have occurred in mobile homes,” Bryant said.

Damage has already been reported in Jessieville, Arkansas, after a possible tornado, Garland County Office of Emergency Management Director Bo Robertson told CNN. Robertson said the county has not had any reports of injuries or fatalities, but damage is still being assessed.

Robertson said as “major damage” was reported to the Jessieville school district. Seven of the district’s buildings were damaged, according to the Garland County Sheriff’s Office spokesperson Courtney Kizer. In a news release, the sheriff’s office said that at approximately 2:44 p.m. CT the area near the school experienced high winds associated with what is thought to be a tornado.

“Damage was sustained to areas of the school due to trees, and power lines. The school was currently in session at the time, however all students have been accounted for and reports of no injury,” the release said.

Storm damage seen in Jessieville, Arkansas, on January 2, 2022.

In response to the severe weather and flash flooding expected in parts of Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott activated state emergency response resources Monday.

“The State of Texas is proactively working to ensure Texans and their property remain safe from severe weather threats that could impact eastern regions of our state today and early tomorrow,” Abbott said in a statement. “As we monitor conditions and potential threats, I urge Texans in affected areas to heed the guidance of local officials and remain weather-aware as severe weather systems develop. We will swiftly provide all necessary resources to address severe weather and protect our communities.”

In Jackson Parish, Louisiana, officials are asking residents to stay off the roads due to severe weather in the area, according to a Jackson Parish Sheriff’s Office Facebook post.

“Due to extreme weather we are asking that anyone who does not have an emergency to stay off the roads. We have several trees down and water over the roads. We are trying to work to get to houses that are damaged and clear roads,” the post said.

From Missouri down to the Gulf Coast, more than 30 million people are at risk for severe weather Monday, CNN Meteorologist Dave Hennen said.

And more tornadoes and damaging winds are possible Tuesday in parts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama as the storm moves east.

Farther north, more than 15 million people from Utah to Wisconsin are under winter weather alerts Monday.

The same storm system caused record-setting rainfall and deadly flooding in drought-stricken California over the weekend. And another wave of intense rainfall this week could exacerbate dangerous flooding.

In the Plains and Midwest, rapid snowfall of 1 to 2 inches per hour is forecast from the Nebraska panhandle through southwest Minnesota – leaving a total of more than 12 inches of snow by late Tuesday. The onslaught of snow could be accompanied by thunder.

“These intense rates combined with gusty winds will produce areas of blowing and drifting snow, resulting in snow-covered roads, reduced visibility and difficult travel,” the Weather Prediction Center said.

Significant ice accumulation could lead to power outages and treacherous travel conditions.

More than 75 miles worth of Interstate 80 in Wyoming are closed due to the ongoing impacts of the storm, according to the Wyoming Department of Transportation. The department said westbound traffic is further blocked from the Rawlins section of I-80 to the I-25 junction in Cheyenne, which covers more than 120 miles.

“Snow [and] blowing snow to impact Wyoming roads into tonight,” an agency Facebook post read. “A high wind event will then create blowing [and] drifting snow, poor visibility and possible whiteout conditions Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon for sections of I-80, I-25, South Pass and various secondary roads!”

The westbound closures are expected to reopen in 12 to 14 hours, the department said. The remaining sections are “long term closures” with no estimated reopening time available.

weather snow accum 010223

CNN Weather

Freezing rain could cause more than a quarter-inch of ice to stack up from northeastern Nebraska to northwestern Iowa to southern Minnesota late Monday into Tuesday.

“Travel will become hazardous, if not impossible, later this evening (into) Tuesday in many areas,” the National Weather Service in Sioux Falls said Monday.

School districts in South Dakota and Wyoming began announcing Monday night they’d be closing schools Tuesday.

Three vehicles are submerged on Dillard Road west of Highway 99 in south Sacramento County in Wilton, California, Sunday, after heavy rains on New Year's Eve.

Northern California communities submerged in mammoth flooding over the weekend could get deluged by even more rainfall later this week.

It’s not clear how much this storm will make a dent in drought conditions that have gripped California, which started 2022 with the driest beginning of the year on record and ended with flooded roads and swelling rivers.

“Early precipitation forecasts for the midweek storm looks to be around 2 to 3 inches possible in the Central Valley with 3 to 6 inches or more of liquid precipitation in the foothills and mountains,” the weather service office in Sacramento said. 

An atmospheric river – a long, narrow region in the atmosphere which can carry moisture thousands of miles – fueled a parade of storms over the weekend, which led to record-setting rainfall and water rescues.

At least two people died, including one found inside a submerged vehicle in Sacramento County and a 72-year-old man struck by a falling tree at a Santa Cruz park, officials said.

Another atmospheric river could bring heavy rain and more flooding Wednesday to Northern and central California, including the Bay Area.

This next storm “looks like it will cause dangerous situations,” the National Weather Service in San Francisco said.


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New Electric 2024 Toyota C-HR Spotted Testing For The First Time

Carscoops 

When Toyota revealed the next-generation C-HR Prologue concept, it would not say whether the small SUV was going all electric. Now, our spy photographers say they have captured photos of the production vehicle testing with an all-electric powertrain ahead of its official unveiling.

Spotted on the road in Europe, this camouflaged test vehicle’s silhouette is notably similar to that of the C-HR Prologue concept, which was revealed in December. Toyota’s followup to the popular C-HR small crossover, the automaker confirmed that the new model would get hybrid, and plug-in hybrid variants. Now it appears that it will also get an all-electric version.

Although the small crossover’s design details are all hidden under a camouflage wrap in these spy shots, its profile is all but identical to the concept’s, featuring the same roof-mounted spoiler and aggressive hood as the show car. Although the tester’s tail appears to be straighter than the concept’s, closer inspection reveals what appears to be a separate panel, that may serve to deceive onlookers.

Read: Toyota Previews New C-HR With Prologue Concept Coming In 2023 With PHEV Option

The Toyota Prologue Concept

There are no close-up shots of the interior, but some of the photos are clear enough to see a touchscreen that sits proud of the dashboard, and separate from the instrument binnacle. That suggests that this vehicle will have two separate screens, unlike higher-end brands, such as BMW and Mercedes, which combine two screens into a single unit. Although this vehicle will be more humble than those, the style has been taken up by more mass market brands like Kia and Hyundai.

No official information on this crossover’s powertrain has been revealed yet, but the current C-HR is offered as an EV in China, delivering a range of up to 249 miles (400 km). The larger bZ4X, meanwhile, offers a WLTP range of up to 321 miles (516 km) for the front-wheel-drive variant. Its electric motor makes 201 hp (150 kW/204 PS) and 265 Nm (195 lb-ft) of torque.

Assembly of the new C-HR is expected to take place in Turkey, where the current model is made. Toyota has confirmed that it will reveal the production version of the model later in 2023. More details are expected at that time.

Photos Baldauf for Carscoops

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Defiant McCarthy vows to fight to the end

Just In | The Hill 

A defiant Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) vowed Tuesday to fight as long as it takes to win the Speaker’s gavel in the new Congress, challenging his Republican detractors with threats of a marathon process that would undermine Republicans politically just as they’re taking control of the lower chamber. 

In a 90-minute closed-door meeting in the Capitol basement, McCarthy gave an impassioned speech to the House GOP Conference, making the case that he’s earned the right to replace outgoing Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). 

“Kevin was about as fired [up] as I’ve ever seen him,” said Rep. Ann Wagner (R-Mo.), who predicted that “90 percent” of the room was strongly behind the Republican leader.

Yet McCarthy can afford only four dissenting votes from within the GOP conference, and his detractors say they have many more than that lined up to sink his speakership bid. The House will hold an election for Speaker this afternoon.

Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) said there are “absolutely” enough votes to block McCarthy, at least on the first ballot. McCarthy’s entreaties, he said, swayed none of the detractors. 

“Nothing’s changed,” he said. 

“I’ll be voting for Biggs,” echoed Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), referring to Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), who is also running for Speaker this week. 

Yet McCarthy has remained undaunted, vowing to remain on the floor for as many ballots as it takes to wear down his opponents and win the gavel. 

“I have the record for the longest speech ever on the floor. I don’t have a problem getting a record for most votes for Speaker, too,” McCarthy said after the meeting. 

Asked how long it will take to elect a Speaker, McCarthy said: “I think it might take a while.”

Wagner said that was the same message McCarthy had delivered behind closed doors moments earlier. 

“He was not recessing. He was not reconvening. He was not standing down. He was going to stay and fight,” she said.

McCarthy allies cheered in support during the meeting, and Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) reportedly floated denying committee assignments to those who do not vote for McCarthy.

Yet McCarthy’s math problem seemed to worsen on Tuesday morning, as some of the members who had been withholding support for McCarthy without revealing their final position said after the meeting that they will not vote for him on the floor.

“Kevin McCarthy is not the right candidate to be Speaker,” Rep. Dan Bishop (R-N.C.) said in a statement.

“As it stands, I will not be voting for Kevin McCarthy,” Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) told reporters.

Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) said that McCarthy “lied” to members during his pitch, but would not specify about what.

McCarthy similarly fired back at his detractors, telling reporters that Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) said during the meeting, “I don’t care if we go to plurality and we elect Hakeem Jeffries.” Jeffries (D-N.Y) was elected last month as Democratic leader.

Gaetz — who said he will vote for Biggs Tuesday afternoon —  also took a shot at McCarthy after the fiery meeting, admitting that he and Reps. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) and Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) have a trust problem with the GOP leader.

“It is true that we struggle with trust with Mr. McCarthy because time and again his viewpoints, his positions, they shift like sands underneath you,” Gaetz told reporters, standing beside Perry and Boebert.

“Those of us who will not be voting for Kevin McCarthy today take no joy in this discomfort that this moment has brought, but if you want to drain the swamp, you cannot put the biggest alligator in charge of the exercise,” he said at another point in his remarks. “I’m a Florida man and I know of what I speak.”

But even as the number of public opponents to McCarthy ticks up, the hard-right House Freedom Caucus remains divided on McCarthy’s Speakership, with high-profile members like Rep. Majorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) supporting McCarthy.

“The majority of the Freedom Caucus is voting for Kevin,” said Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio), who added that he will vote for McCarthy.

The chaos surrounding Tuesday’s Speaker vote has infuriated McCarthy’s supporters, who are eager to use their new House majority to get on with the business of taking on President Biden and his administration on a host of policy issues. 

Some are turning their anger toward McCarthy’s critics, accusing them of disrupting the process without a viable alternative. 

“When asked point blank what they wanted, they had no answer,” said Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.).

​House, News, Andy Biggs, Bob Good, House Speaker vote, Kevin McCarthy, Matt Gaetz, Nancy Mace, Warren Davidson Read More 

Former New York Fed chief: Recession ‘pretty likely’ in US

Just In | The Hill 

The Federal Reserve has become more aggressive in its pursuit to curb inflation, and former Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley said the central bank’s actions means a recession is likely.

“A recession is pretty likely just because of what the Fed has to do,” Dudley said in an interview with Bloomberg on Tuesday. “But what’s different this time I think is that if we have a recession, it’s going to be a Fed-induced recession and the Fed can end the recession by subsequently easing monetary policy.”

The Fed raised interest rates last year, and has said it will continue down that path to stymie inflation, with the ultimate goal of pushing it down to 2 percent over the next few years. Dudley said it needs to drive up the unemployment rate enough to slow down the economy.

But Dudley’s warning of a recession was a measured one, making sure to stipulate that he doesn’t think the slowdown will be severe, as the Fed would be the one engineering the cutback in activity. 

“I don’t think that there’s a big risk of a financial-instability cataclysm that pushes the economy into a deep recession,” Dudley said.

Dudley’s prediction about the American economy comes as a Wall Street Journal survey found that two-thirds of economists believe that a recession is on the horizon.

The Journal surveyed economists at 23 large financial institutions that do business with the Fed and found that most believe a recession will happen this year. Only five of the financial institutions surveyed said they do not expect a recession this year or next year.

​Finance, Policy, Economy, Recession, William Dudley Read More 

Supply chains are on the geopolitical front lines: We’re not ready

Just In | The Hill 

As Russian missile and drone attacks left Kyiv in darkness, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky concluded his latest visit to the United States, where he secured support for crucial air defense capabilities. He returned home successful, with news of American funding for a Patriot missile battery included in a new $2 billion aid package, and $44 billion in emergency aid for Ukraine announced in the annual spending bill delivered by Congress last Tuesday. 

“The American people have been with you every step of the way, and we will stay with you. We will stay with you for as long as it takes,” President Biden said at their meeting in the White House. 

Patriot missiles will help blunt Russia’s deadly attacks on civilians. But they will not be enough. To stop Russia’s drones and missiles before they are launched, the U.S., Ukraine, and their allies need to staunch the flow of microelectronics entering Russia. 

New research published the week before the visit revealed that Western technology is at the heart of Moscow’s most destructive weapons. This comes as little surprise: For months RUSI, Altana — a company that is creating a searchable global supply chain database, and where one of us works — and others have documented how shadowy illicit networks continue to source sensitive microelectronics for Russia’s military-industrial complex despite a tightening web of trade restrictions. Fundamentally, they are able to do this due to a lack of supply chain visibility. 

Supply chains power our everyday lives — but they exist in a governance seam. Neither fully controlled by states or governments, they are opaque, sprawling and difficult to understand. Supply chain data is held by a myriad of actors, each unwilling to cede control over its information due to (perfectly valid) concerns about privacy and intellectual property. This creates gaps in the supply chain visibility of regulators and private firms alike, which malign actors exploit. This is why our supply chains are plagued by export control violations, forced labornarcotics trafficking and all manner of abuses.

Today, supply chains are at the frontlines of great power competition. In response to the conflict with Russia and ongoing strategic competition with China, the United States and its allies have introduced an expansive regime of export controls without precedent. These measures are designed to deny our adversaries access to the world’s most sophisticated technologies, stunt their military-industrial complexes and degrade their expansive surveillance architectures. These mammoth objectives represent a paradigm shift in US export control policy.

Our enforcement systems are not ready. U.S. and allied enforcement agencies, though staffed with dedicated, heroic agents who routinely perform complicated work in hostile environments, are not being given the resources they need to detect and disrupt these illicit networks. In an age of AI and machine learning, U.S. enforcement agents should not be forced to rely primarily on “Google searches [and] Microsoft Excel,” or on “databases [that]  can perform only a fraction of the needed functionality and crash routinely,” as a recent study found.

We can do better. Today, the private sector and civil society are using state-of-the-art AI and machine learning to bring supply chains from the shadows into the light. As a result, supply chains are undergoing a quiet revolution, as sophisticated technology brings visibility and management from the analog age into the modern era. Today, multi-tier visibility can provide transparency into second and third-tier suppliers and customers. Sophisticated analytical capability can defeat obfuscatory tactics like transshipment and front company formation. And federated data architectures can enhance information-sharing and collaboration between regulators and firms. 

If the U.S. and its allies are serious about securing supply chains from malign actors, they had better invest accordingly. That means increasing access to supply chain visibility systems that amass, analyze and action relevant data and forging innovative public-private partnerships. Without this investment, we will continue to see some of our greatest technological assets used not to bring prosperity and peace, but instead death and destruction.

Thomas Ewing is the director of research at Altana, and James Byrne is the director of open-source intelligence and analysis at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).

​National Security, Opinion Read More