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New York
CNN
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Many CEOs, investors and consumers are worried about a recession in 2023. But Moody’s Analytics says the more likely scenario is a “slowcession,” where growth grinds to a near halt but a full economic downturn is narrowly avoided.

“Under almost any scenario, the economy is set to have a difficult 2023,” Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi wrote in a report on Tuesday. “But inflation is quickly moderating, and the economy’s fundamentals are sound. With a bit of luck and some reasonably deft policymaking by the Fed, the economy should avoid an outright downturn.”

Moody’s said in a slowcession — a phrase coined by Zandi’s colleague Cristian deRitis — economic growth “comes to a near standstill but never slips into reverse.” Unemployment would rise, but not spike.

Given all the recent worries about the economy, such a slowcession would come as a relief to many.

Recession fears helped make 2022 the worst year for US stocks since 2008. In fact, the S&P 500’s 19.4% drop last year was its fourth-largest drop since 1945, according to CFRA Research.

With the Federal Reserve slamming the brakes on the US economy to snuff out inflation, business leaders and CEOs have grown increasingly confident about a 2023 recession.

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan recently told CNN’s Poppy Harlow that a “mild” recession is likely. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg see a 70% chance of a recession in 2023.

Moody’s, whose research is frequently cited by the White House, is not dismissing the risk of a downturn, warning that a recession remains a “serious threat” and saying the economy is “especially vulnerable” to a shock. The firm also expects unemployment will tick up to 4.2% by late 2023 from the current reading of 3.7%.

There is also a real risk of a self-fulfilling prophecy, where nervous business owners and consumers hunker down so much that they cause the very recession they fear.

Yet there are valid reasons to be cautiously optimistic about what lies ahead.

The jobs market remains historically strong, inflation is cooling, real wages are heating up, gas prices have plunged and the Fed could be preparing to pause its rate-hiking campaign.

Last week, Goldman Sachs said it still believes the US economy will avoid a recession and instead move towards a “soft landing” where inflation moderates but growth continues.

In addition to cooling inflation, Moody’s expressed optimism about the ability of consumers to weather the storm in 2023.

“Shoppers are the firewall between an economy in recession and an economy that skirts a downturn,” Zandi wrote. “While the firewall is sure to come under pressure, particularly as financially hard-pressed low-income households struggle, it should continue to hold.”

Zandi also pointed to relatively strong fundamentals in the US economy, including profitable businesses, healthy consumer balance sheets and a banking system that is “on about as strong financial ground as it has ever been.”

The Moody’s economist noted the economy is not plagued by troubling imbalances that were glaring before prior recessions, such as overbuilt real estate markets or massive asset bubbles.

“It is important not to be Pollyannish, but it also important not to convince ourselves that a recession is inevitable,” Zandi wrote. “It is not.”

CNN
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It’s been over 18 months since Christian Eriksen collapsed on the pitch at Euro 2020 after suffering a cardiac arrest.

The Danish midfielder received life-saving treatment during his country’s game against Finland in June 2021, eventually being resuscitated and taken to hospital.

The players on the pitch, those inside the stadium and fans around the world held their breath as Eriksen’s teammates linked arms to hide his fight for survival.

They were scenes that bore similarities with Monday night when Buffalo Bills player Damar Hamlin collapsed on the field.

Like Eriksen, Hamlin also suffered a cardiac arrest. According to the Bills, his heartbeat was restored on the field and the 24-year-old remains in a “critical condition” at a Cincinnati hospital.

Buffalo Bills team trainers got to Hamlin within 10 seconds of his collapse, similar to the team doctors who had saved Eriksen’s life.

“Well, what should I say? He was gone,” said Denmark’s team doctor Morten Boesen at the time.

“And we did cardiac resuscitation and it was cardiac arrest. How close were we? I don’t know.”

Eriksen was later fitted with an Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillator (ICD) device, a type of pacemaker intended to prevent fatal cardiac arrests by discharging a jolt to restore regular heart rhythm, and made an incredible return to the sport he loved.

Just 259 days after he collapsed, Eriksen made his competitive return in the English Premier League after signing for Brentford.

Serie A club Inter Milan – whom Eriksen had been contracted to at the time of the incident – let the midfielder move abroad as he was unable to play in Italy unless the ICD device was removed.

Eriksen came on in the 52nd minute in Brentford’s 2-0 loss to Newcastle United in February 2022 and received a hero’s welcome.

“If you take away the result, I’m one happy man. To go through what I’ve been through, being back is a wonderful feeling,” Eriksen said afterward.

After a brief but successful spell at Brentford, Eriksen made the move to Manchester United in July 2022 where he continues to be a pivotal part of the team.

He’s made 15 league appearances so far this season, scoring once.

Then, in November 2022, Eriksen fulfilled his dream of playing for Denmark in a third World Cup.

The 30-year-old played every minute of Denmark’s three games at Qatar 2022, before his nation departed at the group stage.

Speaking ahead of the tournament, Eriksen said the incident at Euro 2020 altered his perspective on both football and life.

“I think it gave me… let’s say the appreciation of being alive and being with my family. And I think everything else is just moved to the side,” he told reporters.

“To have the possibility to go back and be who I was before was really the aim. My first aim was always to be a boyfriend and a dad.

“It’s still very special to be at the World Cup. The national team is something I’m just very happy to be part of again.”