Opinion | Releasing Trump’s Tax Returns Was the Right Decision

Politics, Policy, Political News Top Stories 

Now that we have Donald Trump’s actual tax returns, we can see that the U.S. House Ways and Means Committee was right to fight for their production — and to release them publicly. The tax returns shed important new light on Trump’s foreign business entanglements and other conflicts of interest during his presidency, as well as on critical public policy issues like the IRS’s malfunctioning presidential audit program. The successive committee publications of its analysis, its report and the actual returns also rebut any claims that the release of the returns opens a dangerous door. On the contrary, these actions establish a valuable precedent.

Every president since Jimmy Carter has released his tax returns upon becoming a candidate for the presidency and/or during his term. For years Donald Trump delayed disclosure of his tax returns, and now we can guess at least part of the reason why. His questionable tax practices and conflicts of interest in office were substantial, and he was a less successful businessman than he claimed: For two of the four years of his presidency he paid little or no taxes as a result of the chronic losses and massive deductions he reported.

Because Trump broke with the standard practice of presidential candidates and presidents of releasing their returns, until now we’ve had to rely on a series of partial disclosures to understand his financial situation. First, we got smaller leaks from the press, followed by the New York Times’s major reveal of Trump’s tax returns through 2017. Then on December 21, we got the House Ways and Means Committee’s summary of his tax returns for 2015-20 and the accompanying report on the IRS’s audit program. Now we have the returns themselves.

In each of these successive waves we’ve learned more of the information we should have had all along. Take, for example, the details we have garnered about Trump’s foreign business entanglements. The tax returns reveal that Trump had foreign bank accounts between 2015 and 2020. Certain of these accounts had previously been reported, such as a bank account in China between 2015 and 2017, which reportedly is connected to Trump International Hotels Management’s business promotion in China.

But the returns show so much more, including a staggering array of other foreign financial touchpoints including in Azerbaijan, Brazil, Canada, the Dominican Republic, Georgia, Grenada, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Mexico, Panama, the Philippines, Puerto Rico, Qatar, South Korea, St. Maarten, St. Vincent, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and the United Kingdom.

We have never seen anything like it with an American president. Beyond shedding light on potential foreign policy conflicts spanning the globe, this kind of information is vitally important for legal reasons, as two of us explained for POLITICO six years ago. From the very beginning of Trump’s administration there was reason for concern regarding his compliance with the Foreign Emoluments Clause of the Constitution, which prohibits any person holding a position of trust with the United States government from receiving any profits and benefits — i.e. emoluments — from foreign governments. Not every foreign financial contact is an emolument of course and not every emolument is a bribe. But the Founders weren’t taking any chances. Those kinds of payments are prohibited for federal officials at all levels, and Congress, the public and the press are entitled to full transparency so we can fully understand Trump’s financial ties in other nations for ourselves. The newly released returns of course do not itemize payments or other benefits from foreign governments as such, but the web of foreign entanglements they reveal heighten such concerns.

Then there is the problem of Trump’s meager, and at times nonexistent, tax payments. We now know that Trump paid very little in federal income taxes in the first and last years of his presidency, claiming huge losses. Trump carried forward a $105 million loss on his 2015 return, $73 million in 2016, $45 million in 2017 and $23 million in 2018. This is peculiar given the fact that Trump ran for the presidency claiming to be a successful businessman and billionaire. He told the IRS a different story, reducing his tax bill to almost nothing. The problem is both that his claimed “losses” year after year are suspicious and that he appears to have been dishonest about his losses when he was running.

Trump also claimed interest from loans to his children, which is an oft-used trick to disguise gifts. This is reminiscent of a ploy used by Trump’s father Fred Trump to transfer money to his children, the subject of a blockbuster New York Times investigation in 2018.

The recently revealed returns also raise questions about the very large charitable deductions Trump claimed for possibly unfounded conservation easements, large cash contributions and other challenged practices.

All of this takes us back to a practice referred to by British economists in the 1970’s as tax “avoision” — blurring the lines between legal but ethically dubious tax avoidance strategies and illegal tax evasion. It’s bad enough for Fred Trump to have done it and gotten away with it, but at least Fred Trump was not president. This is hardly the standard of tax compliance we would expect of the president, particularly when just about every tax bill signed by any president closes some tax loopholes and opens other new ones. A president who secretly exploits tax loopholes to his own advantage should not be proposing, lobbying through Congress, and signing into law, legislation that determines how much tax the rest of us pay.

Trump’s returns also reinforce concerns about both tax and business fraud. The Trump Organization already has been convicted criminally on 17 counts of state tax fraud in New York, in which the prosecution handily convinced a unanimous jury that Trump and his company “cultivated a culture of fraud and deception.” Another fraud trial brought by the New York attorney general’s office is on the way, this one civil in nature. The returns buttress the New York attorney general’s central theory of liability: That Trump and his business entities allegedly engaged in years of financial fraud, such as utilizing the dubious conservation easements the tax materials document.

Trump’s tax and business liabilities were relevant to the American people understanding him — and still are now that he is a candidate again (assuming he is not disqualified). Americans are entitled to know about Trump’s taxes so we can evaluate his trustworthiness, his conflicts of interest and his tax policies. Instead, we had been left in the dark until the disclosure of Trump’s returns.

Finally, there is the question of the IRS’s policy of conducting what was supposed to have been a mandatory audit of the president’s tax returns. That was a bad joke under the Trump administration. The IRS opened only one “mandatory” audit during Trump’s presidency — for his 2016 tax return. That audit did not occur until the fall of 2019. That should perhaps come as no surprise, given that it is none other than the president who appoints, and has the power to fire, the commissioner of the IRS. By contrast Trump’s predecessor Barack Obama was audited every year as was Trump’s successor, Joe Biden.

All of this is why the argument that releasing Trump’s taxes is an unprecedented invasion of privacy fails. Americans have a right to know, and the House Committee had the legal right to release Trump’s tax returns: the combination of those two rights justifies the decision to release them. So too does the committee’s report on the failure of the presidential audit program. As we are currently seeing with the Jan. 6 Committee transcript releases, it is customary to back up Congressional reports with the underlying data. Here the evidence that establishes why audits were so badly needed is the tax returns themselves.

Now Americans need to decide what to do with them, and with a man who was probably the most conflicted — and now, we know, undertaxed — president in modern American history.

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Bipartisan lawmakers call for legislation to regulate Big Tech

Just In | The Hill 

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) on Sunday voiced support for legislation to increase regulations on Big Tech, expressing their concerns on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” 

Klobuchar, who has served as the chairwoman of the Subcommittee on Competition Policy, Antitrust, and Consumer Rights, said Big Tech is “so powerful” that even bipartisan legislation that passes through the Senate Judiciary Committee can vanish because companies step in. 

Klobuchar had pushed for an end-of-year bill to require Big Tech to pay news outlets for the media content they distribute on their platforms, but she said Facebook and Google stepped in to lobby and block the bill. 

“We had such strong support for this bill, but these guys just make a few calls,” she said. 

Klobuchar said a similar law passed in Australia despite the companies’ objections, and their systems are better as a result. 

She said Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act, which protects social media platforms from responsibility for the content that users post online, is “archaic” and needs to be replaced. She said companies should be considered publishers, which would open them up to greater scrutiny for their content. 

“Let’s just start facing the fact and stop pretending that they’re some little company in a garage,” she said. 

Gallagher said he is somewhat concerned that repealing Section 230 could lead to greater censorship because platforms might proactively kick users off if they are afraid of facing lawsuits over their content, but greater transparency around the platforms’ algorithms is necessary. 

He said data portability should be mandated across platforms to allow people to take their network to any platform that has what they consider the best content moderation policies and transparency. He said he would be interested in speaking with Klobuchar about her ideas for the best way for Congress to act on the issue. 

Gallagher said Congress should focus on consumer protection and do a better job communicating information about the terms of conditions that users must agree to for the platforms so they can understand them. 

“When it comes to our kids, the government can’t raise your kids, can’t protect your kids for you. I have two young daughters. It’s my responsibility to raise them into healthy adults. But there are certain sensible things we can do in order to create a healthier social media ecosystem,” he said.

​Sunday Talk Shows, Amy Klobuchar, big tech, Mike Gallagher, Section 230, social media companies Read More 

Georgia Bulldogs defeat Ohio State Buckeyes to advance to the College Football Playoff Championship



CNN
 — 

The Georgia Bulldogs have advanced to the College Football Playoff Championship after defeating the Ohio State Buckeyes 42-41 in the second semifinal College Football Playoff game Saturday.

Trailing by six points late in the 4th quarter, defending national champion Georgia mounted a 72-yard drive capped by quarterback Stetson Bennett’s third touchdown pass of the game to take the lead with 54 seconds remaining.

Ohio State used that time to drive the ball into field goal range, setting up a 50-yard attempt for kicker Noah Ruggles. But Ruggles hooked the kick left, and the Bulldogs escaped with the 1-point win.

Georgia is the first team to come back from a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit in College Football Playoff history, according to the NCAA.

Earlier Saturday, No. 3 Texas Christian University’s Horned Frogs came into the first semifinal game as underdogs and pulled off a major upset, delivering a thrilling 51-45 win against No. 2 Michigan Wolverines.

The Horned Frogs, who began the season outside the Top 25, defeated the previously unbeaten Michigan Wolverines 51-45 in the highest scoring Fiesta Bowl ever. The Big Ten champions entered the game favored by more than a touchdown, but TCU never trailed in the game en route to a shot at the national championship.

Heisman runner-up Max Duggan threw for 225 yards and four total touchdowns, while running back Emari Demarcado added 150 yards on the ground at the Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Arizona.

The Bulldogs will face the Horned Frogs Monday, January 9, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, for the Championship game.

TCU will be seeking its first national championship since 1938 and the first for a Big 12 team since 2005, while Georgia will be aiming to be the first back-to-back national champion since Alabama in 2011 and 2012 and the first repeat champion in the College Football Playoff era.

source

Opinion | The House Should Not Have Released Trump’s Personal Tax Returns

Politics, Policy, Political News Top Stories 

The House Ways and Means Committee just released to the public six years of personal tax returns for former President Donald Trump. Trump could have released those returns when he was first a candidate, or as president, or when he recently announced his third candidacy.

His excuse for withholding his personal tax returns from public scrutiny — that he could not release them because they were under audit — is patently false. There is absolutely no law, rule or policy that precluded Trump from releasing his own tax returns, whether or not they were under audit. He simply chose not to do so. His excuse was a lie.

Breaking with significant norms of American politics was — and is — routine for Trump. So is lying. The fact that previous candidates and presidents have released their personal returns seemed not to matter to him. Trump took a chance that his voters would neither care nor punish him for ignoring this tradition. He turned out to be right about that, at least the first time around.

Last Friday, the House Ways and Means Committee did what Trump refused to do: It released his personal tax returns. I think that was a mistake. The committee certainly had a valid reason to obtain and examine Trump’s returns. No quarrel there. But did they have a valid reason to publish his returns? I don’t think so.

The committee noted that it:

[S]ought the return information and tax returns of the former President to investigate how the IRS’s mandatory audit program operated under the stress of a President who maintained financial interests in hundreds of related entities and reportedly was under audit every single year.

So, the committee’s focus was properly the IRS’ mandatory audit program. That program was established in 1977. Wisely, it took the onus off individual IRS employees to determine whether they “should” audit a president’s returns. That could be tricky, because the IRS is part of the executive branch, which is led by a president. To insulate the audit and the auditors from politics, the IRS manual transformed the “should” question into a “must” requirement: Since 1977, it provides that the “[i]ndividual income tax returns for the President and Vice President are subject to mandatory examinations.”

The committee learned that during Trump’s term in office, he filed five personal income tax returns with the IRS, all of which should have been subject to the mandatory audit program. But the committee found that three of the five returns — for calendar years 2017, 2018, and 2019 — “were not selected for examination until after [Trump] left office and only the 2016 tax return was subject to a mandatory examination.”

Oddly, the committee also noted that “the IRS sent a letter to [Trump] notifying him that his … 2015 return was selected for examination on April 3, 2019, which is the date the [committee] sent the initial request to the IRS for [Trump’s] … tax returns.” That does not seem to be a coincidence.

Why did the IRS fail to abide its own — nearly half-century old — policy? This was one of the major questions raised in the committee’s report. Perhaps the IRS failed because Trump’s returns were inordinately complex. Perhaps, relatedly, it failed because the IRS did not have sufficient resources to audit a complex return. Perhaps, and this is surmise, it was something more nefarious.

The committee report recommends ways to fix the structural failures at the IRS, going forward. That seems valuable. And that strikes me as a sufficient reason to obtain and examine Trump’s returns. For instance, the committee could not know how difficult it might be for the IRS to audit Trump’s returns if it did not know how complex they were, in the first place.

But publication of his returns is different. How does publication advance the otherwise valuable findings of the committee? Couldn’t the committee highlight the IRS’ failures in a report and keep Trump’s returns private? I believe so. Stated another way, what is the connection between the valid concerns raised by the committee — the deficiencies in the mandatory audit program they identified at the IRS — and the committee’s decision to make public Trump’s returns? None, that I see.

I am not, to put it mildly, a Trump fan so my next words may seem odd, but here goes: The committee’s decision to publish the returns was unfair to Trump. So why do I worry about being unfair to Trump? Because principles of fairness should matter to all of us, all the time, and apply to all of us, all the time, even if they do not matter to Trump.

Trump strikes me as a bad person. In many ways, he is not very different than many of the people I encountered as a federal prosecutor. He is greedy, dishonest, self-centered, narcissistic and reckless. But all the people we prosecuted deserved to be treated fairly for legal, ethical and moral reasons, and they deserved to be treated fairly all the time, whether or not we liked them. We cannot reserve fair treatment for people we like and unfair treatment for people we dislike. That would be a death spiral for our judicial system and for our democracy.

The committee did good work uncovering IRS deficiencies. Those deficiencies need to be fixed. But control of the House of Representatives — and its Ways and Means Committee — will soon switch to a different party. That party may find it politically expedient to obtain and publish the personal tax returns of people they do not like. And, the committee will have the power to do that. Perhaps the new House majority will surprise me and demonstrate restraint. Or, perhaps, they will try to “get even.” Time will tell, but we should all fear the latter.

​ Read More 

Bank of America economist says 2023 could be ‘difficult’ year for US

Just In | The Hill 

Bank of America’s chief economist warned on Sunday that 2023 would be a “difficult” one for Americans due to economic factors that he predicted could trigger a recession.

When asked by CBS’ Margaret Brennan on “Face the Nation” to give a forecast on the economy this year, Michael Gapen said he agreed with the notion that it could look and feel worse.

“I think we’re in a situation where the risk of recession is high, may not be a deep and prolonged one. But we’re in a situation where the economy has recovered very rapidly from- from COVID, and it’s come with a lot of inflation,” Gapen said. “We may be able to avoid it, but I would agree that the outlook by most people who sit in the position that I do think 2023 could be a difficult year for the U.S.”

Gapen cited interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in its attempt to slow inflation.

“More often than not, when we’re tightening policy, pushing interest rates higher to slow down the domestic economy and bring down inflationary pressures, that often means we get a period of higher unemployment rates, and what would be characterized as a recession,” Gaper explained.

But Gapen said it’s also possible to avoid a recession or be in one that doesn’t last long.

“In the past, we have been able to raise rates, cool inflation, without pushing the economy into a recession. In the mid 1990s we were able to do it. It’s just that the path to that is very tricky and sometimes involves a little more luck than it does skill,” Gapen said.

Gaper also said the U.S. economy is most likely past peak inflation, and the year-over-year inflation rate should continue to lower as it began doing late last year, but would take a while to take effect.

“The trajectory is a more favorable one. It will probably take two to three years to get inflation back down to levels that we knew prior to the pandemic,” he said.

​Sunday Talk Shows, inflation, Michael Gaper, Recession Read More 

Anita Pointer of The Pointer Sisters dies at age 74



CNN
 — 

Anita Pointer, one of the founding members of the R&B group The Pointer Sisters, has died at age 74, according to her publicist Roger Neal.

Pointer passed away Saturday at her home in Los Angeles where she was surrounded by her family, Neal said in a statement to CNN. The cause of death was cancer, he said.

“While we are deeply saddened by the loss of Anita, we are comforted in knowing she is now with her daughter, Jada and her sisters June & Bonnie and at peace,” Pointer’s family said in a statement. “Heaven is a more loving beautiful place with Anita there.”

“She was the one that kept all of us close and together for so long. Her love of our family will live on in each of us,” the statement said, while also asking that the family’s privacy be respected “during this period of grief and loss.”

The four Pointer Sisters began singing together more than 50 years ago in their hometown church in Oakland, California, where their father ministered. Bonnie Pointer and her youngest sister, June, made their professional singing debut as a duo in 1969. They later recruited older sisters Anita and Ruth to join them, before releasing their first album together in 1973.

The group won their first Grammy Award for their crossover hit, “Fairytale,” in 1974. They are also known for hits like “Slow Hand,” “Neutron Dance,” and “Jump.”

The group won three total Grammy Awards and had 13 US Top 20 hits between 1973 and 1985.

source

Macao eases COVID rules, but tourism, casinos yet to rebound

Top News: US & International Top News Stories Today | AP News 

Casino Lisboa, right, is seen in Macao on Dec. 28, 2022. Gambling haven Macao’s relaxation of border restrictions after China rolled back its “zero-COVID” strategy is widely expected to boost its tourism-driven economy. The gaming hub on China’s south coast near Hong Kong has endured some of the world’s strictest anti-virus controls for nearly three years. Now, China’s worst wave of infections so far is keeping away the hoards of high rollers who usually fill its casinos. (AP Photo/Kanis Leung)

MACAO (AP) — Only a few tourists crisscrossed the wavy black and white paving of Macao’s historic Senado Square on a recent weekday and many of the shops were shuttered.

The gaming hub on China’s south coast near Hong Kong has endured some of the world’s strictest anti-virus controls for nearly three years, and a loosening of border restrictions after China rolled back its “zero-COVID” strategy in early December is widely expected to boost its tourism-driven economy.

But for now, China’s worst wave of infections so far is keeping away the hoards of high rollers who usually fill its casinos. From Dec. 23-27, the city saw a daily average of only 8,300 arrivals, according to police data. That’s just 68% of November’s level. The scene improved on New Year’s Eve with 28,100 visitors entering the city that day, but that’s only 66% of the level a year ago. The daily average was 108,000 in 2019, before the pandemic.

Last week, China announced it would resume issuing passports for tourism, potentially setting up a flood of Chinese going abroad, but also spicing up competition for Macao.

Businesses are hoping the Lunar New Year holidays in late January will bring better luck for the territory of 672,000 people, a former Portuguese colony and the only place in China where casinos are legal.

Hub peek embed (apf-Health) – Compressed layout (automatic embed)

“Tourists just come here to have a walk instead of shopping,” said Antony Chau, who sells roasted chestnuts on the square known for the European-style buildings that recall its history as a former Portuguese colony. ”They’re just wandering.”

When the coronavirus hit in 2020, the city’s gambling revenue collapsed 80% to just $7.5 billion from a year earlier. In 2021, the figure recovered to $10.8 billion, but that’s still down 75% from a peak of $45 billion in 2013. Gambling revenues last year was halved to $5.3 billion.

A rebound could not come a moment too soon for souvenir shop owner Lee Hong-soi.

He said his business has been even quieter recently than before entry rules were relaxed. Since entry into Macao requires a negative PCR test result before departure, many in mainland China could not visit because they were infected, he said. And now Macao and other parts of China are battling outbreaks.

“I am running out of strength after enduring for three years,” he said.

Several hundred meters away, visitors were enjoying an unusual degree of tranquility at the Ruins of St. Paul’s, originally the 17th century Church of Mater Dei.

Rain Lee, 29, visiting from Hong Kong with her husband, said she was happy not to deal with crowds, but disappointed so many businesses were shuttered.

“Many shops are gone,” said Lee, a property manager. “I wish it could be like the pre-pandemic days when all stores were open, with many people walking in the streets. It was more vibrant back then.”

Beijing visitor Xylia Zhang, 36, taking her first trip outside the mainland since the pandemic began, was looking forward to trying her luck in the casinos.

“It’s quite exciting because I may lose the several hundred dollars (in Chinese yuan) that I budgeted,” she said. “I have been to casinos in Seoul and Las Vegas. But I haven’t experienced that in Chinese-speaking places.”

The surge of cases in China has prompted some people to go to Macao to get shots of the mRNA-based Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, which is not available in the mainland, the Chinese business news website Caixin reported last month. Macao’s University Hospital, which provides the service, did not reply to an emailed request for comment and its phone rang unanswered Friday.

But there has been no sign of a rush of customers, especially not in the casinos.

Gambling floors at two major casinos were half-empty Wednesday, with just a few small groups of Chinese visitors sitting around slot machines and craps tables, dealers visibly bored with the lack of activity.

It will take a while for Macao to regain its pre-pandemic pizzazz, said Glenn McCartney, associate professor in integrated resort and tourism management at the University of Macao.

“(For) tourism, you can’t sort of snap your fingers, and things start to move,” McCartney said.

But he said Macao’s tourism officials have staged road shows in China during the pandemic, leveraging the scenic city’s location just across the border.

The Lunar New Year will bring a sense of the potential for a longer term rebound in tourism, he said.

“That could be the cue.”

 

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Facebook whistleblower says company isn’t ‘committed’ to civic integrity

Just In | The Hill 

Frances Haugen, who became known as the Facebook whistleblower after she released thousands of documents about the platform’s content moderation policies and algorithm, said the company is not “committed” to civic integrity. 

Haugen said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that Facebook is more concerned with its stock prices and profit margins than public safety. She said she was initially optimistic about the company’s plans when she was hired as part of its civic integrity unit, which she said was one of the best in the industry. 

But she said she realized Facebook was not serious when it dissolved the unit after the 2020 presidential election. 

“When Facebook dissolved civic integrity, I saw that they weren’t willing to make that commitment anymore,” she said. 

Haugen released thousands of internal documents from Facebook in 2021 about the company’s algorithm and its response to misinformation on the platform. She testified before Congress in October of that year that Facebook is prioritizing profits over its users’ safety. 

She also alleged in complaints filed to the Securities and Exchange Commission that Facebook misled investors about its efforts to stop the spread of misinformation about COVID-19 and climate change. 

Haugen said Facebook’s stock price declined by more than 5 percent compared to Nasdaq overwhelmingly when something demonstrated that the company needed to spend more on public safety. 

“Facebook is scared that if we actually had transparency, if we actually had accountability, they would not be a company with 35 percent profit margins — they’d be a company with 15 percent profit margins,” she said. 

Haugen said a problem exists in that social media companies are so sensitive to growth that growing at a lower level than what the stock market expects causes their stock prices to drop. She said this causes them to be afraid to take even small actions toward safety because it could decrease the profit margins. 

She said social media platforms allow “invisible” lies to be spread because of the algorithm, unlike with television or radio and that such companies need to become much more transparent.

​Technology, algorithm, civic integrity, content moderation, Facebook, Frances Haugen, profit margins, public safety, whistleblower Read More 

Europe's big question: What a diminished Russia will do next



CNN
 — 

Russia’s war in Ukraine has proven almost every assumption wrong, with Europe now wondering what left is safe to assume.

Its invasion in February managed to startle in every way. To those who thought Moscow was sane enough to not attempt such a massive and foolhardy undertaking. To those who felt the Russian military would waltz across a land of 40 million people and switch to clean-up operations within 10 days. And to those who felt they had the technical and intelligence prowess to do more than just randomly bombard civilian areas with ageing artillery; that the Kremlin’s military had evolved from the 90s levelling of Grozny in Chechnya.

And finally, to those who felt nuclear saber-rattling was an oxymoron in 2022 – that you could not casually threaten people with nukes as the destruction they brought was complete, for everyone on the planet.

Still, as 2022 closes, Europe is left dealing with a set of known unknowns, unimaginable as recently as in January. To recap: a military once considered the world’s third most formidable has invaded its smaller neighbor, which a year ago excelled mostly in IT and agriculture.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky delivers a speech in front of the Assembly of the European Parliament on March 1, 2022 in Brussels, Belgium.

Russia spent billions of dollars apparently modernizing its military, but it turns out that it was, to a large extent, a sham. It has discovered its supply chains don’t function a few dozen miles from its own borders; that its assessment of Ukraine as desperate to be freed from its own “Nazism” is the distorted product of nodding yes-men, feeding a president – Vladimir Putin – what he wanted to hear in the isolation of the pandemic.

Russia has also met a West that, far from being divided and reticent, was instead happy to send some of its munitions to its eastern border. Western officials might also be surprised that Russia’s red lines appear to shift constantly, as Moscow realizes how limited its non-nuclear options are. None of this was supposed to happen. So, what does Europe do and prepare for, now that it has?

Key is just how unexpectedly unified the West has been. Despite being split over Iraq, fractured over Syria, and partially unwilling to spend the 2% of GDP on security the United States long demanded of NATO members, Europe and the US have been speaking from the same script on Ukraine. At times, Washington may have seemed warier, and there have been autocratic outliers like Hungary. But the shift is towards unity, not disparity. That’s quite a surprise.

Local resident Valentina Demura, 70, stands next to the building where her destroyed apartment is located in the southern port city of Mariupol.

The body of a serviceman is coated in snow next to a destroyed Russian military multiple rocket launcher vehicle on the outskirts of Kharkiv, Ukraine, Friday, February 25, 2022.

Declarations that Russia has already lost the war remain premature. There are variables which could still lead to a stalemate in its favor, or even a reversal of fortune. NATO could lose patience or nerve over weapons shipments, and seek economic expediency over long-term security, pushing for a peace unfavorable to Kyiv. But that does, at this moment, seem unlikely.

Russia is digging in on the eastern side of the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine, and has the advantage that the Donetsk and Luhansk frontlines in Ukraine’s east are nearer its border. Yet its challenges are immense: poorly trained, forcibly conscripted personnel make up 77,000 of its frontline troops – and that’s according to the glossy assessment voiced by Putin. It is struggling for munitions, and seeing regular open, internal criticism of its winter supply chain.

Ukraine is on home territory, with morale still high, and Western weapons still arriving. Since the collapse of Moscow’s patchwork of forces around the northeastern city of Kharkiv in September – where their supply lines were cut by a smarter Ukrainian force – the dynamic has all been against Moscow.

The prospect of a Russian defeat is in the broader picture: that it did not win quickly against an inferior adversary. Mouthpieces on state TV talked about the need to “take the gloves off” after Kharkiv, as if they would not be exposing a fist that had already withered. Revealed almost as a paper-tiger, the Russian military will struggle for decades to regain even a semblance of peer status with NATO. That is perhaps the wider damage for the Kremlin: the years of effort spent rebuilding Moscow’s reputation as a smart, asymmetrical foe with conventional forces to back it up have evaporated in about six months of mismanagement.

Russian soldiers are seen on a tank in Volnovakha district in the pro-Russian separatists-controlled Donetsk, in Ukraine on March 26, 2022.

The question of nuclear force lingers still, chiefly because Putin likes regularly to invoke it. But even here Russia’s menace has been diminished. Firstly, NATO has been sending unequivocal signals of the conventional devastation its forces would mete out were any form of nuclear device used. Secondly, Russia’s fairweather allies, India and China, have quickly assessed its losing streak and publicly admonished Moscow’s nuclear rhetoric. (Their private messaging has likely been fiercer.)

And finally, Moscow is left with a question nobody ever wants to learn the answer to: if its supply chains for diesel fuel for tanks 40 miles from its border do not function, then how can they be sure The Button will work, if Putin reaches madly to press it? There is no greater danger for a nuclear power than to reveal its strategic missiles and retaliatory capability do not function.

Despite this palpable Russian decline, Europe is not welcoming in an era of greater security. Calls for greater defense spending are louder, and heeded, even if they come at a time when Russia, for decades the defining issue of European security, is revealing itself to be less threatening.

Europe is realizing it cannot depend on the United States – and its wild swings between political poles – solely for its security.

The TotalEnergies Leuna oil refinery, which is owned by French energy company Total, stands on April 12, 2022 near Spergau, Germany.

Meanwhile thousands of innocent Ukrainians have died in Putin’s egotistical and misguided bid to revive a Tsarist empire. More broadly, authoritarianism has been exposed as a disastrous system with which to wage wars of choice.

Yet some good has come from this debacle. Europe knows it must get off its dependence on Russian gas immediately, and hydrocarbons in general in the longer term, as economic dependence on the fossil fuels of dictators cannot bring longer-term stability.

So, how does the West deal with a Russia that has experienced this colossal loss of face in Ukraine and is slowly withering economically because of sanctions? Is a weak Russia something to fear, or just weak? This is the known unknown the West must wrestle with. But it is no longer such a terrifying question.

For over 70 years, the Russians and West held the world in the grip of mutually assured destruction. It was a peace based on fear. But fear of Moscow should be ebbing slowly, and with that comes the risk of miscalculation. It also raises a less chilling prospect: that Russia – like many autocracies before it – may be fading, undermined by its own clumsy dependence on fear domestically.

Europe’s challenge now is to deal with Russia in a state of chaotic denial, while hoping it evolves into a state of managed decline. One abiding comfort may be that, after underestimating Moscow’s potential for malice, the risk for Europe would be to overstate its potential as a threat.

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Bureaucracy, not billionaires, keeps our emergency rooms full

Just In | The Hill 

New York City emergency rooms are always swamped with patients, many of whom are lying on stretchers in the hallways. When a health care provider passes, some will raise their hands, wave, shout or try in any way they can to get a doctor, nurse or physician’s assistant’s attention. All U.S. ERs must take all comers, and there is no shut-off valve at the triage desk, so despite how clogged it is, still the patients come.

Ken Langone is not someone who seeks special attention for himself; in fact, he prides himself on his humble roots. He was evacuated down the stairs by stretcher during Superstorm Sandy back in 2012 during a hospitalization for pneumonia along with many others and was not given special treatment. 

In fact, it was Langone, in one of his greatest philanthropic moves, who spearheaded the drive to raise the money to make NYU Grossman School of Medicine tuition-free. As part of this effort, he donated $100 billion himself in 2019. It was this trend-setting move that was soon copied by other medical schools and took the pressure off so many of our future doctors around the country, allowing them to altruistically choose primary care medical careers for lesser salaries than some specialists receive without the chokehold of hundreds of thousands of dollars in tuition loan repayments hanging over their head. Contrast this with the Biden plan to give $10,000 in tuition relief for everyone, currently blocked by the U.S. Supreme Court as they deliberate on its future, another shortsighted government payout without an endgame or long-term strategy attached.

Speaking of shortsighted initiatives, health care policies enacted under President Obama and now extended under President Biden are at least partly responsible for the mess we are seeing in today’s hospitals. It is not being kind or even occasionally providing VIP care to charitable donors as recent reporting suggests is the real problem. It’s extending one-size-fits-all insurance coverage that pays a hospital and its doctors poorly while overwhelming them with massive amounts of bureaucratic paperwork which interferes with patient care.

Now President Biden is proposing to make it easier to buy the same faulty Obamacare plans that are clogging our ERs for those who lose Medicaid coverage (18 million) if the coronavirus public health emergency expires in April 2023. The problem with so many of these individual plans under the Affordable Care Act is that they rely on narrow networks of physicians and massive deductible roadblocks which give a suddenly ill patient nowhere else to go to seek care than the emergency room. This is one reason our ERs are so overcrowded.

The solution is more philanthropy like Langone’s not more foolish tax expenditures like Biden’s. The solution is not to mock a special room where a patient with a real emergency can be seen quickly or someone famous like a U.S. senator can be treated privately while receiving needed care. Langone himself should be praised, not scolded. His name belongs on the buildings where he has done so much to support high-quality care and research. Those who work there are honored to be associated with his name.

Marc Siegel MD is a professor of medicine and medical director of Doctor Radio at NYU Langone Health. He is a Fox News medical correspondent and author of the new book, “COVID; the Politics of Fear and the Power of Science.”

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