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Just In | The Hill 

Three southern states are gearing up for governors’ contests in 2023 that could give an early indication of the way the political winds are blowing ahead of the presidential election in 2024.

Louisiana, Kentucky and Mississippi will all be holding off-year gubernatorial elections. While Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) is term-limited and unable to run again, Govs. Tate Reeves (R) in Mississippi and Andy Beshear (D) in Kentucky are up for reelection. 

Here’s what to know about each gubernatorial race taking place next year.

Kentucky

Gov. Andy Beshear (D) is running for a second term in the Bluegrass State after winning his first term by less than a percentage point in 2019 against former Gov. Matt Bevin (R). 

Serving as governor in a state that former President Trump won by over 25 points in 2020, the Kentucky Democrat enjoys relatively high support. Polling from Morning Consult released in October found that Beshear ranked as one of the top 10 most popular governors in the country, sitting at an approval rating of 59 percent and up from the previous quarter when it was at 55 percent. The news outlet noted it was “driven largely by increasingly positive reviews from Kentucky’s Republican voters.”

The state’s response to tornadoes in 2021 that ravaged western Kentucky and killed more than a dozen people and serious flooding earlier this year that impacted Kentuckians among others in Appalachia earned Beshear praise from some Republicans. At the same time, Republicans have knocked Beshear’s use of emergency powers when he issued mandates during the COVID-19 pandemic, arguing that he was not collaborating with other officials or the GOP-controlled legislature.

Among the Republicans seeking to challenge Beshear include state Attorney General Daniel Cameron, former Trump U.N. Ambassador Kelly Craft, state Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles and State Auditor Mike Harmon. Cameron has already notched Trump’s endorsement for the office, though it’s unclear how influential it will be among Republican voters after many of Trump’s nominees struggled during the November midterms. 

Former congressional candidate Geoff Young (D) is also running for the office.

Despite the fact that the state has regularly gone for the Republican presidential nominee in recent years, Kentucky has only had seven GOP governors since 1900, compared to 22 Democratic governors.

The gubernatorial GOP primary will take place on May 16 and the general election is set for Nov. 7. 

Louisiana

With Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) unable to run again due to term limits, the gubernatorial race is already attracting Republican challengers, including state Attorney General Jeff Landry. Though Landry is so far the only GOP candidate to announce a run so far, Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) has confirmed he’s seriously considering a gubernatorial bid himself.

“Over the last year, Louisianans have asked me time and time again to come home to serve as governor during these difficult times. Becky and I love the people of Louisiana. We’ve always listened to them, so I am giving serious consideration to entering the governor’s race. I’ll be announcing my decision soon,” Kennedy, who was just reelected for a second term last month, said in a statement mid-November.

Among some of the other Republican officials considering throwing their hat in the ring are Rep. Garret Graves (R-La.), Lt. Gov. Billy Nungesser, state Sen. Sharon Hewitt and state Treasurer John Schroder. Some of those officials may wait until Kennedy makes a decision before making official announcements of their own, according to the Lafayette Daily Advertiser.

It’s not clear yet which Democrats may field a challenge, but whoever the candidate is will likely face an uphill battle. The last time Democrats won the governor’s mansion before Edwards was back in 2003. Edwards was also among eight governors whose approval ratings sat under 50 percent, according to an October Morning Consult poll, which may offer additional headwinds for a Democratic candidate there.

Still, the state’s Oct. 14 jungle primary gives the party a possible shot as all candidates, regardless of party affiliation, compete on the same ballot. If a candidate secures at least half of the vote, they win the gubernatorial election. If no candidate receives at least 50 percent of the vote, the two candidates with the most votes proceed to the general election on Nov. 18.

Mississippi

Over in the Magnolia State, Gov. Tate Reeves (R) is vying for another run at the governor’s mansion after winning his first term in 2019 against Democrat Jim Hood, then the state’s attorney general. Though no Republicans have officially announced intentions yet to run against Reeves, there’s still plenty of time ahead of the Aug. 8 primary for Reeves to draw a primary challenge. 

Reeves has struggled with low approval ratings during his time as governor. A survey from several universities — including Northeastern University, Harvard University and Harvard Medical School, Rutgers University and Northwestern University — released in September 2020 found that respondents’ approval of how Reeves handled COVID-19 in his state had declined throughout the year. “While his approval rating for tackling COVID-19 sat at 56 percent in late April in 2020, according to the survey, it later fell to 34 percent by late August of that year.”

Earlier this year, a survey from Morning Consult also found that Reeves was among one of eight governors to have a general approval rating under 50 percent. 

More recently, he’s also been implicated in a long-running state welfare lawsuit, which is investigating state welfare funds that were misappropriated, along with big names like former Green Bay Packers quarterback and Mississippi-native Brett Favre. Reeves has not been charged with any wrongdoing.

Among the Republicans reportedly being floated as possible challengers to Reeves are state House Speaker Philip Gunn, Secretary of State Michael Watson, Attorney General Lynn Fitch, former state Supreme Court Chief Justice and former 2019 GOP gubernatorial challenger Bill Waller Jr., among others.

Still, there’s reason to believe that Reeves will prevail in the August GOP primary given his incumbency advantage. The Daily Journal also notes that Reeves has a formidable financial advantage, too, and one strategist told the news outlet that trying to oust Reeves from a GOP primary would be no small task. The general election is Nov. 7.

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Just In | The Hill 

In the new year, Merrick Garland will face two unprecedented scenarios: He could become the first attorney general in American history to indict a former president, as well as the first attorney general to be impeached by Congress. 

For months, Garland has faced the unenviable prospect of having to eventually decide whether or not to prosecute Donald Trump. There are two ongoing federal investigations into the former president: One involving his possible mishandling of classified documents and presidential records, and the other concerning his role in the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol. 

This month, the House Select Committee that was separately investigating Jan. 6 unanimously recommended that the Department of Justice pursues at least four criminal charges against Trump for attempting to block the peaceful transfer of power after losing the 2020 election. 

Declaring that “one man,” was the “central cause” of the attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, the committee released a scathing report detailing their findings and recommended that Trump be charged with obstruction of an official proceeding, conspiracy to defraud the United States, conspiracy to make a false statement and incitement of insurrection. 

Though criminal referrals from Congress have no legal weight, and the DOJ’s own investigation into Jan. 6 is still running its course, the committee’s final report adds to the pressure that has been building on Garland for months.  

Seeking political insulation, the attorney general appointed an independent special counsel, Jack Smith, to handle the DOJ’s active investigations into Trump after he announced his intention to seek the presidency again in 2024. 

But regardless of what Smith recommends, Garland will have the ultimate say in bringing an indictment, as the attorney general has the full power to override a special counsel’s recommendation. Appointing a special counsel does not offer Garland any real degree of political absolution, and he will personally bear the consequences of the department’s eventual decision. 

Based on the current rhetoric from Republicans in the House, these consequences will likely include an impeachment inquiry into his conduct as attorney general. House Republicans already filed two impeachment resolutions against Garland in the 117th Congress, and far-right Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who will become one of the most prominent members in the new Republican caucus, has indicated her desire to move forward with impeachment in a GOP-controlled House. 

Even if House Republicans are successful in impeaching Garland with their slim majority, he is not at real risk of being removed by the Senate, which is controlled by Democrats. There is also a sizable group of Republican senators who have rejected the idea that Biden administration officials should face impeachment en masse. 

Garland is, of course, no stranger to the Republican Party’s brazen politicization of the judicial system. He was nominated to the Supreme Court by President Barack Obama to replace the late conservative justice, Antonin Scalia, in February 2016 and the Republican-controlled Senate blocked proceedings for nearly one year, leaving the highest court one justice short for most of its term.  

It must be said that, despite the right’s baseless accusations of weaponized politicization, there is no reason whatsoever to believe that the attorney general is motivated by anything other than a sense of duty. If Garland makes the determination to charge Trump criminally, it will be because Trump broke the law.  

That being said, we cannot ignore this reality: An opposing party bringing criminal charges against a former president — who is again running for office — would set a dangerous and divisive precedent in the United States, and could turn the justice department into a perpetual political weapon. 

Even if A.G. Garland, Smith and the Department of Justice have Donald Trump dead to rights, an indictment could embolden far more nefarious actors in the future to prosecute their political opponents with much less evidence of criminality.  

It is not an exaggeration to suggest that this could trigger a constitutional crisis, a civil war — or both. Regarding the latter, Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham over the summer predicted, “riots in the streets” should Trump be indicted, and in the same interview criticized the so-called “double standard” that many on the right believe exists for the former president. 

As damaging as an indictment would be to the country, an even greater threat to the republic would be if Garland makes the decision not to prosecute Trump if there is clear and unequivocal evidence that he committed a serious federal crime or multiple.  

That could jeopardize America’s endurance, stability and place in the world. It would send the message to our allies and adversaries alike that America treats its leaders as if they are immune from the law, which goes against core democratic principles. 

No one in the United States, not even the president, should be above the law. If Donald Trump crossed the line into criminal conduct, he should face justice.  

But there is no denying that Merrick Garland, as the chief law enforcement officer in the United States, will face an unprecedented set of challenges in ultimately determining where that line is. 

Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an adviser to President Clinton and to the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. His new book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”

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Politics, Policy, Political News Top Stories 

Russia deployed multiple exploding drones in another nighttime attack on Ukraine, officials said Monday, as the Kremlin signaled no letup in its strategy of using bombardments to target civilian infrastructure and wear down Ukrainian resistance to its invasion.

The barrage was the latest in a series of relentless year-end attacks, including one that killed three civilians on New Year’s Eve.

Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said Monday that 40 drones “headed for Kyiv” overnight. All of them were destroyed, according to air defense forces.

Klitschko said 22 drones were destroyed over Kyiv, three in the outlying Kyiv region and 15 over neighboring provinces.

Energy infrastructure facilities were damaged as the result of the attack and an explosion occurred in one city district, the mayor said. It wasn’t immediately clear whether that was caused by drones or other munitions. A wounded 19-year-old man was hospitalized, Klitschko added, and emergency power outages were underway in the capital.

In the outlying Kyiv region a “critical infrastructure object” and residential buildings were hit, Gov. Oleksiy Kuleba said.

Russia has carried out airstrikes on Ukrainian power and water supplies almost weekly since October.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has accused Russia of “energy terrorism” as the aerial bombardments have left many people without heat amid freezing temperatures. Ukrainian officials say Moscow is “weaponizing winter” in its effort to demoralize the Ukrainian resistance.

Ukraine is using sophisticated Western-supplied weapons to help shoot down Russia’s missiles and drones, as well as send artillery fire into Russian-held areas of the country.

Moscow’s full-scale invasion on Feb. 24 has gone awry, putting pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin as his ground forces struggle to hold ground and advance. He said in his New Year’s address to the nation that 2022 was “a year of difficult, necessary decisions.”

Putin insists he had no choice, but to send troops into Ukraine because it threatened Russia’s security — an assertion condemned by the West, which says Moscow bears full responsibility for the invasion.

Russia is currently observing public holidays through Jan. 8.

Drones, missiles and artillery shells launched by Russian forces also struck areas across Ukraine.

Five people were wounded in the Monday morning shelling of a Ukraine-controlled area of the southern Kherson region, its Ukrainian Gov. Yaroslav Yanushevich said on Telegram.

The Russian forces attacked the city of Beryslav, the official said, firing at a local market, likely from a tank. Three of the wounded are in serious condition and are being evacuated to Kherson, Yanushevich said.

Seven drones were shot down over the southern Mykolaiv region, according to Gov. Vitali Kim, and three more were shot down in the southeastern Dnipropetrovsk region, Gov. Valentyn Reznichenko said.

In the Dnipropetrovsk region, a missile was also destroyed, according to Reznichenko. He said that energy infrastructure in the region was being targeted.

Ukraine’s Air Force Command reported Monday that 39 Iranian-made exploding Shahed drones were shot down overnight, as well as two Russian-made Orlan drones and a X-59 missile.

“We are staying strong,” the Ukrainian defense ministry tweeted.

A blistering New Year’s Eve assault killed at least four civilians across the country, Ukrainian authorities reported, and wounded dozens. The fourth victim, a 46-year-old resident of Kyiv, died in a hospital on Monday morning, Klitschko said.

Multiple blasts rocked the capital and other areas of Ukraine on Saturday and through the night. The strikes came 36 hours after widespread missile attacks Russia launched Thursday to damage energy infrastructure facilities, and the unusually quick follow-up alarmed Ukrainian officials.

In Russia, a Ukrainian drone hit an energy facility in the Bryansk region that borders with Ukraine, Bryansk regional governor Alexander Bogomaz reported on Monday morning. A village was left without power as a result, he said.

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Just In | The Hill 

A former Republican aide to two past GOP House speakers said in an op-ed published Monday that a “self-serving” move by a small group of Republicans to potentially deny House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) the speakership would make a “mockery” of the institution of Congress. 

Brendan Buck, a communications consultant who previously worked for former Speakers John Boehner (R-Ohio) and Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), said in The New York Times op-ed that the “usual pageantry” and “fleeting” hope that the incoming Congress will be better than the last could be “immediately dashed” if the House fails to choose a Speaker on the first ballot. 

Buck said a “small band of Republican misfits” have pledged to vote against McCarthy for the speakership, and only five Republican votes against him are needed to deny him the role. He said McCarthy should do “all within reason” to secure the votes he needs to win on the first ballot. 

“Otherwise, a self-serving power play by a small group of Republicans threatens to make a mockery of the institution and further cement the notion that the party is not prepared to lead,” Buck wrote. 

McCarthy needs to win a majority of the House members present and voting to become Speaker, but the GOP’s narrow majority in the body means he cannot afford more than four votes with all 222 GOP members are voting. 

A group of at least five Republicans have expressly said or strongly indicated they would not support McCarthy for Speaker, which would be enough to deny him victory at least on the first ballot. A larger number of Republicans have demanded McCarthy agree to certain rules to win their support.

McCarthy offered a series of concessions to his detractors in the House Rules package proposed on Sunday, but it remains unclear if they will be enough to secure him the necessary support.

Buck noted that the last time the House did not choose a Speaker on the first ballot was a century ago and that it has only happened once since the Civil War. He said a failed vote would weaken McCarthy or whoever the next Speaker is. 

“But no matter who ultimately emerges as the top House Republican, the prolonged spectacle would leave the Republican majority hopelessly damaged from the start, along with the institution of the House itself,” he said. 

Buck said the House cannot conduct any other business until a Speaker is chosen, and the selection process can be time-consuming even when it goes smoothly. 

He said the House would allow members to make speeches in favor of a candidate if McCarthy does not win on the first ballot, which he said could “unleash a circus” in which GOP opponents to McCarthy question his fitness for the job on the floor. 

Buck also predicted the Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), who is mounting a bid against McCarthy, would not win the leadership role and instead another Republican would be elected if McCarthy fails.

“But the agitators’ objective isn’t to win the speakership for one of their own; it is to weaken Mr. McCarthy or whoever emerges as the next speaker of the House. The embarrassment indeed may be the point,” Buck wrote.

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