[World] Russia's war drains Ukraine's rich list of power

Shakhtar Donetsk FC owner Rinat Akhmetov carried by the playersImage source, Getty Images
Image caption,

Shakhtar Donetsk FC owner Rinat Akhmetov carried by the players

For decades, Ukraine’s super-rich businessmen have wielded enormous economic and political power within their home country. However, since the Russian invasion, Ukraine’s most infamous oligarchs have lost billions in revenue.

Has the reign of the Ukrainian oligarchs finally come to an end?

Ukraine’s richest man – 56-year-old Rinat Akhmetov – is for many the epitome of an oligarch.

The son of a coal miner turned self-made billionaire, he is known across Ukraine as “the King of Donbas.”

As well as owning huge swathes of the steel and coal industry in the east, including the Azovstal steelworks which now lies in ruins, he also owns Shakhtar Donetsk FC, one of the country’s best football teams, and until recently one of the country’s main TV channels.

But beyond their extraordinary wealth, Ukraine’s oligarchs are also renowned for wielding political power.

In 2017, London-based think tank Chatham House said they posed “the greatest danger to Ukraine”.

Through a vast network of allies and loyal MPs, Ukraine’s oligarchs have repeatedly influenced the passing of laws for the benefit of their own business empires.

President Volodymyr Zelensky called them “a group of people who think they are more important than lawmakers, government officials or judges”.

But like so many ordinary civilians, since the beginning of the Russian invasion in the east of Ukraine back in 2014, they have had their businesses blown apart by missiles and their properties lost to the Russian occupation.

Many felt that as Ukraine’s richest man Mr Akhmetov should have done more from the very beginning to stamp out separatism fuelled by Russia in his home region.

As Russia’s influence backed by military power spread in Donbas, he told his factories to sound their sirens in protest. He also issued statements critical of the separatists.

A Russian serviceman patrols near Akhmetov's Azovstal steel plant in MariupolImage source, Getty Images
Image caption,

A Russian serviceman patrols near Mr Akhmetov’s Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol

But as far as funding and supporting the resistance, he was criticised for taking too little action. Especially when compared to another Ukrainian tycoon, billionaire Ihor Kolomoisky.

In March 2014, he was appointed governor of Dnipropetrovsk Region, south-east Ukraine.

As the conflict escalated, Mr Kolomoisky pumped millions into Ukraine’s volunteer battalions. He offered bounties for capturing Russian-backed militants and supplied the Ukrainian army with fuel.

But then, in 2019, he found himself at loggerheads with President Zelensky’s predecessor, Petro Poroshenko.

Parliament had recently passed a law which resulted in Mr Kolomoisky losing control over an oil company. His response? Turning up at the oil company’s headquarters with men allegedly wielding machine guns.

Graphic showing losses of billions in the last year by Ukraine's richest Oligarchs
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But as the war ground on in the east, and with the loss of yet more factories, mines and fertile farmland, the demise of Ukraine’s oligarchs was well under way.

The next blow came in late 2021, when Ukraine passed what was known as the “de-oligarchisation bill”.

President Zelensky’s new law defined an oligarch as someone who met three of the following four conditions:

  • Holding influence over the media or politics
  • Owning a monopoly
  • Making millions of dollars a year.

All those who qualified were exposed to extra checks and banned from funding political parties.

To avoid being put on the Zelensky list, Rinat Akhmetov immediately sold all his media assets.

But then came Russia’s dramatic escalation of the conflict – the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The war has only intensified the loss of earnings for Ukraine’s super-rich. But will their demise strengthen Ukraine’s democracy?

“Absolutely,” says Sevgil Musayeva, editor-in-chief of popular news website Ukrainska Pravda. “This war is the beginning of the end for oligarchs in Ukraine.”

“The de-oligarchisation law was one of the first major triggers of their demise,” says Serhiy Leshchenko, formerly one of Ukraine’s most prominent investigative journalists and now adviser to President Zelensky’s chief-of-staff.

“But as the war escalated, it made the oligarchs’ life even more difficult,” he tells the BBC. “They have been forced to focus on survival rather than domestic politics.”

Now, says Ms Musayeva, it is up to Ukraine’s civil society and anti-corruption institutions to prevent the emergence of new oligarchs. And, of course, the very survival of democracy in Ukraine depends on the outcome of the war with Russia.

Produced by Claire Jude Press.

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Ukraine claims hundreds of Russian troops killed in strike; Moscow says 63 died



CNN
 — 

An apparent Ukrainian strike in Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine appears to have killed a large number of Russian troops, according to the Ukrainian military, pro-Russian military bloggers and former officials.

The strike took place just after midnight on Sunday, New Year’s Day, on a vocational school housing Russian conscripts in Makiivka, in the Donetsk region, according to both Ukrainian and pro-Russian accounts.

The attack has led to vocal criticism of Moscow’s military from pro-Russian military bloggers, who claimed that the troops lacked protection and were reportedly being quartered next to a large cache of ammunition, which is said to have exploded when Ukrainian HIMARS rockets hit the school.

The Ukrainian military said later on Monday that the number of Russian servicemen killed in Makiivka is “being clarified” after claiming earlier that around 400 Russian soldiers were killed and a further 300 were wounded. It has not directly acknowledged a role in the strike. CNN cannot independently confirm those numbers or the weapons used in the attack.

Some pro-Russian military bloggers have also estimated that the number of dead and wounded could run in the hundreds.

The Russian defense ministry on Monday acknowledged the attack and claimed that 63 Russian servicemen died, which would make it one of the deadliest single episodes of the war for Moscow’s forces.

Russian senator Grigory Karasin said that those responsible for the killing of Russian servicemen in Makiivka must be found, Russian state news agency TASS reported Monday.

Karasin, who is chairman of the International Affairs Committee of the Federation Council, said the deaths should not be forgotten.

Video reportedly from the scene of the attack circulated widely on Telegram, including on an official Ukrainian military channel. It shows a pile of smoking rubble, in which almost no part of the building appears to be standing.

“Greetings and congratulations” to the separatists and conscripts who “were brought to the occupied Makiivka and crammed into the building of vocational school,” the Strategic Communications Directorate of the Chief Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said on Telegram. “Santa packed around 400 corpses of [Russian soldiers] in bags.”

The Russian defense ministry said the Ukrainian attack used US-made HIMARS rockets.

Daniil Bezsonov, a former official in the Russia-backed Donetsk administration, said on Telegram that “apparently, the high command is still unaware of the capabilities of this weapon.”

“I hope that those responsible for the decision to use this facility will be reprimanded,” Bezsonov said. “There are enough abandoned facilities in Donbas with sturdy buildings and basements where personnel can be quartered.”

A Russian propagandist who blogs about the war effort on Telegram, Igor Girkin, claimed that the building was almost completely destroyed by the secondary detonation of ammunition stores.

“Nearly all the military equipment, which stood close to the building without the slightest sign of camouflage, was also destroyed,” Girkin said. “There are still no final figures on the number of casualties, as many people are still missing.”

Girkin has long decried Russian generals whom he claims direct the war effort far from the frontline, calling them “unlearned in principle” and unwilling to listen to warnings about putting equipment and personnel so close together in HIMARS range. Girkin was previously minister of defense of the self-proclaimed, Russian-backed Donetsk People’s Republic, and was found guilty by a Dutch court of mass murder for his involvement in the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over eastern Ukraine in 2014.

A Russian defence ministry spokesperson talks about the Makiivka shelling in Moscow, Russia, on January 2.

Sergey Markov, another pro-Russian military blogger, said there was “a great deal of sloppiness” on the part of the Russian command.

Boris Rozhin, who also blogs about the war effort under the nickname Colonelcassad, said that “incompetence and an inability to grasp the experience of war continue to be a serious problem.”

“As you can see, despite several months of war, some conclusions are not made, hence the unnecessary losses, which, if the elementary precautions relating to the dispersal and concealment of personnel were taken, might have not happened.”

Donetsk has been held by pro-Russian separatists since 2014 and it is one of four Ukrainian regions that Moscow sought to annex in October in violation of international law.

The news comes after the Ukrainian military claimed that more than 700 Russian soldiers had been killed Saturday, but did not specify where.

Russian forces “lost 760 people killed just yesterday, (and) continue to attempt offensive actions on Bakhmut,” the military’s general staff said Sunday.

Russian units have been pressing an offensive towards the city of Bakhmut in Donetsk for months but have suffered heavy losses as Ukrainian forces have targeted them in what is largely open rural territory.

Air raid sirens sounded across Ukraine over the weekend as fresh rounds of Russian missile strikes hit several regions. The attacks killed at least six people in the Donetsk, Kharkiv and Chernihiv regions, while a man was injured early Monday.

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[Entertainment] Jeremy Renner: Avengers actor out of surgery but still in critical condition

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Image source, Getty Images

US actor Jeremy Renner is out of surgery but remains in a critical condition after an accident with a snow plough, his publicist has said.

Renner suffered blunt chest trauma and orthopaedic injuries, and is still in intensive care, Samantha Mast said in a statement to US media on Monday night.

He was airlifted to hospital on Sunday after an accident while clearing snow outside his home in Nevada.

The US has been battered by snowstorms, killing dozens of people.

“Jeremy’s family would like to express their gratitude to the incredible doctors and nurses looking after him,” publicist Ms Mast said in a statement.

The family also thanked the local police and fire services, and said they were “tremendously overwhelmed and appreciative of the outpouring of love and support from his fans”.

Before the accident Renner was reportedly clearing a road outside his home in Reno, Nevada using his personal snow plough so his family could get out after a heavy storm.

The 51-year-old was the only person involved in the incident, the Washoe County Sheriff’s office said, adding that it was being investigated.

US celebrity news site TMZ reported that Renner was aided by neighbours at the scene, one of whom was a doctor. His family thanked “the Carano and Murdock families” in their statement.

A day after the accident, news emerged that rally driving champion Ken Block was killed when his snowmobile flipped at his ranch in Utah.

The US was battered by a major snowstorm over the New Year weekend, with at least 60 people in eight states killed.

Thousands of homes experienced power cuts, and travel was severely disrupted.

Two-time Oscar nominee Renner is best known for his role as Clint Barton/Hawkeye in the Marvel cinematic universe, starring in several Avengers films and in the spin-off television series Hawkeye.

He was nominated for an Academy Award for best actor for his role in The Hurt Locker in 2008, and for best supporting actor in The Town in 2010.

He had shared updates previously on the amount of snow in his area, tweeting in December that “Lake Tahoe snowfall is no joke”.

 

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[Sport] UFC president Dana White and wife sorry after hitting each other in Mexico

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Dana White (centre) says he and his family were in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico to celebrate New Year’s Eve on Saturday

UFC president Dana White says he and his wife have apologised to each other after a “horrible” incident in which they slapped each other in the face.

White, 53, and his wife Anne, were in a nightclub in Mexico on New Year’s Eve when the altercation took place.

“There was a lot of alcohol involved, but that’s no excuse,” White told TMZ.

“You’ve heard me say for years, ‘there’s never ever an excuse for a guy to put his hands on a woman,’ and now here I am on TMZ talking about it.”

A video, released by TMZ,external-link showed White and his wife standing on the balcony of a VIP room at El Squid Roe in Cabo San Lucas.

Following what looked like heated words between the two, Anne hit White across the face after he grabbed her left wrist. White then retaliated by striking his wife before other members of the party intervened.

White said he and his wife had apologised to their three children.

He added: “My wife and I have been married for almost 30 years, we’ve known each other since we were 12 years old.

“This is one of those situations that is horrible; I’m embarrassed. Right now, we’re more concerned about our kids.

“Since the video popped up, we’ve shown the kids the video. We’re more focused on our family right now.”

White helped convince brothers Lorenzo and Frank Fertitta to purchase the UFC for $2m in 2001, at which time White was named president of the company.

The brothers sold the company in 2021 for more than $4bn. At the time White reportedly owned nearly 10% of the company.

 

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Barclays downgrades Ally Financial, says the bank is more vulnerable in 2023

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The outlook for Ally Financial is more uncertain in 2023, according to Barclays. Analyst Jason Goldberg downgraded shares of Ally to equal weight from overweight, saying the bank is more vulnerable to a downshift in the economy. “This year is likely to witness the end of the Fed tightening cycle and loan loss normalization,” Goldberg wrote in a Tuesday note. “As such, we are becoming less constructive on those with outsized asset sensitivity and areas we believe loan losses will adjust the fastest – namely, lower-end consumer (most impacted by much reduced stimulus, elevated inflation, and higher interest rates) and commercial real estate (uncertainties in office, retail, health care segments),” Goldberg added. Banks are starting the new year with several advantages and disadvantages. While they are generally well positioned to weather economic shocks, they’re also dealing with an uncertain macro that could mean higher credit losses and slowing loan growth. Ally shares had their worst year on record in 2022, dropping 48.7%. The analyst lowered his price target to $33, down from $40, which implies nearly 35% upside from Friday’s closing price. “While ALLY should still be able to achieve a core ROTCE in the mid-double digits range over time, results in the near-term will likely be pressured due to the impacts of higher rates partially offset by continued loan growth,” Goldberg wrote. In addition to Ally, the analyst downgraded shares of Capital One Financial to equal weight from overweight, saying that the two stocks are the “most exposed banks we cover to the lower-end consumer.” —CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.

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NFL exec slams notion players were given 5 minutes to warm up after Damar Hamlin incident: ‘That’s ridiculous’

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NFL executive Troy Vincent shot down the notion that players were given five minutes to warm up following Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin’s departure to the hospital after he suffered a medical emergency and collapsed on the field.

Hamlin’s incident occurred in the first quarter of the game between the Bills and the Cincinnati Bengals. After making a tackle on Tee Higgins, he got back to his feet and then collapsed to the field at Paycor Stadium.

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Hamlin was down for several minutes as medical personnel attended to him. He needed CPR and an automated external defibrillator before he was put into the back of an ambulance and rushed to the hospital. As ESPN went in and out of commercial, the broadcast came back and players were seen trying to get back into game mode after witnessing the devastating scene.

It was said on the broadcast multiple times that players were given five minutes to warm up and get ready to play. NFL reporters caught the notion and Vincent, the senior vice president of football operations, dismissed the notion in a media availability early Tuesday.

DAMAR HAMLIN SUFFERED CARDIAC ARREST DURING GAME, HEARTBEAT RESTORED ON FIELD, BILLS SAY

“I’m not sure where that came from,” Vincent said. “Frankly, there was no time period for the players to get warmed up. Frankly, the only thing that we asked was that [referee] Shawn [Smith] communicate with both head coaches to make sure they had the proper time inside the locker room to discuss what they felt like was best.

“So, I’m not sure where that came from. Five-minute warmup never crossed my mind, personally. And I was the one. … that was communicating with the commissioner. We never, frankly, it never crossed our mind to talk about warming up to resume play. That’s ridiculous. That’s insensitive. And that’s not a place that we should ever be in.”

The league postponed the game without any timetable for a make-up date.

The Bills said Hamlin suffered cardiac arrest after the collision with Higgins.

“He is currently sedated and listed in critical condition,” the team said.

 

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‘2024 Senate sweep’: Delay in DSCC chair nomination could be due to Democrats daunting 2024 map

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There doesn’t seem to be any Democrats eager to take charge of the party’s Senate re-election arm.

The 2024 Senate map highly favoring Republicans next cycle casts a dark shadow over the Democratic Party’s already slim majority, leading some strategists to believe it is the reason why nominating a chair to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC).

As the 118th Congress begins Tuesday, the Democratic Party has not made a nomination for who will head the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, despite both chambers on either side of the aisle filling other campaign chair positions.

Jessica Anderson, executive director for Heritage Action, told Fox News Digital that the delay is a reflection of the 2024 map that does not look promising for the Democrat Party.

DEMOCRATS’ INCOMING HOUSE CAMPAIGN CHIEF FACES NEW CHALLENGE: DEALING WITH UNIONIZED POLITICAL STAFF

“Conservatives are well positioned for a successful 2024 Senate sweep, so it comes as no surprise that the Democratic establishment is still unable to find someone to lead their efforts to cling to power. The Democratic Party is more radical today than ever before with moderates no longer welcome and dangerous leftist policies being advocated. Heritage Action, and it’s partner organization, The Sentinel Action Fund will work to ensure that all Americans know conservatives have a clear plan to win and govern for all Americans, and just how radical the Left’s policies are in the lead up to 2024.”

Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich., currently leads the committee, but recently said that he will not stay on for another term as chairman, raising the question of who will run the Senate committee going into the critical 2024 election.

DEMOCRATS RE-ELECT SCHUMER AS LEADER AFTER EXPANDING SENATE MAJORITY TO 51

“I wouldn’t call it a mystery per se as to why the pick is taking so long, but it’s more on the reality that Leader Schumer understands that the landscape for Democrats in 2024 will be tough,” Jose Aristimuño, Democratic strategist and Host of Americano Media, told Fox regarding the delay in a committee leadership nomination. 

“We are talking about 23 Senate Seats that Democrats need to defend. Three are in purely Red States while 5 are swing states. So it’s no wonder that no Senator is jumping at the opportunity, especially during a presidential election year.”

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., is expected to select the next chair, but its unclear when he’ll make an announcement.

Despite no Democrats being eager to chair the committee given the high stakes of the next election, Aristimuño suggested the position holds beneficial opportunities for whoever the caucus decides to take charge of the committee.

“But with that being said — I think there are important opportunities for whoever ends up leading the DSCC. It will raise their national profile, expand their network of grassroots donors, and it will build support for any future leadership bids. Schumer served as chair of the DSCC in the past, and it has served him well. In addition, I think it’s fair to say that the same way everyone waited for a red wave that never came in this past cycle, Democrats will do just fine come 2024. But whoever Schumer ends up picking, they will have to hit the ground running. That’s for sure,” Aristimuño added.

 

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Hunter Biden probe: 2022 marked fourth year — and counting — of investigation

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Federal prosecutors in 2022 are wrapped up the fourth year of their investigation into Hunter Biden for possible tax and foreign lobbying violations, false statements and more.

Hunter Biden has been under federal investigation since 2018.

The probe was predicated, in part, by suspicious activity reports (SARs) regarding suspicious foreign transactions. Those SARs, according to sources familiar with the investigation, involved funds from “China and other foreign nations.”

Fox News first reported the existence of some type of investigation involving Hunter Biden in October 2020, ahead of the last presidential election. It became known then that the FBI had subpoenaed the laptop purportedly belonging to Hunter Biden in the course of an existing money laundering investigation.

FOX NEWS POLL: BIPARTISAN SUPPORT FOR INVESTIGATING HUNTER BIDEN

Stories about the laptop were widely panned by Democrats and mainstream media outlets as Russian disinformation. At the time, then-Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe confirmed that the laptop was “not part of some Russian disinformation campaign,” but that claim was rejected by Democrats and many in the media.

Social media companies like Twitter and Facebook censored and limited the circulation of stories related to Hunter Biden’s laptop before the 2020 presidential election.

Only in 2022 did media outlets like NBC News and CBS News begin accepting the fact and verified that the laptop did belong to Hunter Biden and did hold legitimate records belonging to the president’s son.

Twitter, under the new ownership of Elon Musk, released records surrounding the company’s decisions to block the circulation of the Hunter Biden stories – even though he had been under federal investigation at that point for nearly two years.

Hunter Biden confirmed the investigation into his “tax affairs” in December 2020, after his father was elected president.

FEDS WEIGH CHARGES AGAINST HUNTER BIDEN, OUTCOME OF YEARSLONG CASE COULD BE ‘IMMINENT’: SOURCE

In 2022, the investigation led by Trump-appointed Delaware U.S. Attorney David Weiss appeared to be nearing a critical stage.

Fox News reported in July that the federal grand jury looking into Hunter Biden’s business dealings wrapped up its latest term in June of this year and had expired. A source told Fox News at the time that no charges had been filed.

A former senior Justice Department official told Fox News, however, that the government does not need to have an active grand jury in order to file charges as part of a plea agreement.

Sources told Fox News this fall that federal investigators were weighing whether to charge Hunter with various tax and foreign lobbying violations, false statements and more.

The possibility of a false statement charge stems from the possibility that Hunter Biden lied during a gun purchase in 2018. Fox News first reported last year that police had responded to an incident in 2018, when a gun owned by Hunter Biden was thrown into a trash can outside a market in Delaware.

JOE BIDEN ‘WAS AWARE’ AND POTENTIALLY ‘INVOLVED’ IN SON HUNTER’S CRONY BUSINESS DEALINGS: WHISTLEBLOWERS

A source with knowledge of the Oct. 23, 2018, police report told Fox News that it indicated that Hallie Biden, the widow of President Biden’s late son, Beau, and who was in a relationship with Hunter at the time, threw a gun owned by Hunter in a dumpster behind a market near a school.

A firearm transaction report reviewed by Fox News indicated that Hunter Biden purchased a gun earlier that month.

On the firearm transaction report, Hunter Biden answered in the negative when asked if he was “an unlawful user of, or addicted to, marijuana or any depressant, stimulant, narcotic drug, or any other controlled substance?”

Hunter Biden was discharged from the Navy in 2014 after testing positive for cocaine.

While the federal investigation is ongoing and does not involve the president in any way, congressional inquiries into Hunter Biden’s business dealings have sought to tie suspicious foreign ventures to Biden. 

Sens. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, and Ron Johnson, R-Wis., who have been investigating Hunter Biden’s business dealings since 2019, flagged to the FBI this fall that they were in possession of whistleblower allegations suggesting the bureau was in possession of “significant, impactful and voluminous evidence with respect to potential criminal conduct by Hunter Biden and James Biden” and related to Hunter’s work with Ukrainian natural gas firm Burisma Holdings. 

BIDEN WISHES REPUBLICANS ‘LOTS OF LUCK’ IN PLANS TO INVESTIGATE SON HUNTER IF THEY TAKE THE HOUSE

President Biden has repeatedly denied speaking to Hunter about his business dealings. He has also denied, since the 2020 campaign, having any knowledge about or involvement in his son’s business ventures.

It is unclear whether Grassley and Johnson will continue their investigation into Hunter Biden in the next Congress, but Republicans on several House committees have vowed to launch new, and intensify existing investigations into Hunter Biden and his business dealings next year, when the GOP takes the majority of the House of Representatives and gains subpoena power.

After the midterm elections, President Biden wished House Republicans “lots of luck” if they follow through on their commitments to use a GOP majority to investigate his son. 

“Lots of luck in your senior year, as my coach used to say,” Biden joked. “Look, I think the American public wants us to move on and get things done for them.”

He added, “Look, I can’t control what they’re going to do, all I can do is continue to try to make life better for the American people.”

However, a new Fox News poll this month showed that voters across the political spectrum believe it is important for the Justice Department to investigate Hunter Biden’s business dealings with foreign governments. 

MUSK’S ‘TWITTER FILES,’ REVEALING CENSORSHIP OF HUNTER BIDEN LAPTOP STORY, IS A ‘DISTRACTION, WHITE HOUSE SAYS

Nearly three-quarters of voters (72%) think it is important for the Justice Department to investigate, unchanged from the 72% who felt that way in August. That includes majorities of Republicans (88%), independents (74%) and Democrats (54%).

Partisans disagree, however, on what investigations into Hunter Biden’s conduct will reveal. Republicans generally think Hunter Biden did something illegal in his business dealings with Ukraine and China (70%), and that President Biden committed a crime related to his son’s activities (63%). By contrast, very few Democrats think Hunter Biden (11%) or Joe Biden (8%) did something illegal.

Overall, 39% think Hunter Biden committed a crime, 31% say he did something unethical but not illegal and 19% believe he did nothing seriously wrong.

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The numbers are fairly similar for President Biden: 35% say he committed a crime, 27% think he acted unethically but not illegally and 31% feel he did nothing wrong.

The FBI, among other law enforcement entities, has investigated Hunter Biden for tax-related issues. But voter trust in the FBI depends on the party affiliation of the voter.

Nearly two-thirds of voters (63%) are confident in the Bureau — but that is down from 70% in September. The decline comes primarily from Republicans (47% confident now vs. 59% in September). Most Democrats (84%) and six-in-10 independents (57%) are confident in the FBI.

Fox News’ Dana Blanton and Victoria Balara contributed to this report. 

 

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House Republicans’ real choice: Kevin McCarthy for speaker or chaos

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As Jan. 3 approaches, it is vital for House Republicans to understand their situation.

Because of the narrow majority, a handful of House Republicans saw an opportunity to blackmail the rest of the conference and force their will by refusing to vote for the conference’s choice for speaker.

Eighty-five percent of the House Republican Conference (188-31) voted for Kevin McCarthy over the current leading critic.

Most of the non-McCarthy members (at least 21 of the 31) have already agreed that the majority must rule, and McCarthy is close to having the votes to become speaker on Jan. 3.

GOP FACES DELAY IN UNLOCKING FULL POWERS OF HOUSE IF MCCARTHY CANNOT CLINCH SPEAKERSHIP

However, it only takes five to cause chaos. That would mean five are attempting to coerce 214 other members.

In his first inaugural address in 1861, President Abraham Lincoln warned against the inevitably destructive precedent this behavior sets us. 

As Lincoln put it: “If a minority will secede rather than acquiesce, they make a precedent which, in turn, will divide and ruin them; for a minority of their own will secede from them whenever a majority refuses to be controlled by such minority.”

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This idea that any five members of a narrow majority have the moral right to use their practical power in an attempt to coerce more than 200 of their colleagues is inherently destructive and unsustainable.

The small hardline group needs to find some reasonable requests to allow them to end up supporting the House GOP Conference’s candidate for speaker. 

At the same time, Speaker-designate McCarthy and his team must be flexible enough to find a creative solution that brings the rebels back into the fold without infuriating the rest of the House GOP – and creating a different group compelled to flex their five-vote muscles.

There is plenty of opportunity to quiet the current noise and reasonably come together around a few legitimate changes.

Any other outcome is a disaster for the House Republican Party and for the United States.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM NEWT GINGRICH

For more commentary from Newt Gingrich, visit Gingrich360.com.

 

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McCarthy short of votes as House speaker contest enters final hours

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House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy has already claimed the choicest piece of real estate on Capitol Hill, having moved into the speaker’s office just recently vacated by Democrat Nancy Pelosi. 

But sadly for McCarthy, Pelosi is not the one who signs the deed. That right belongs to the majority of lawmakers who will convene Tuesday at noon and vote for speaker. And with perhaps more than a dozen Republicans refusing to sign on, McCarthy can measure the drapes all he wants, but he doesn’t hold title to the space.

Despite desperate last-minute efforts, including serving the entire caucus Chick-fil-A in the office he hopes will be his, McCarthy as of early Tuesday morning had not yet convinced enough of the holdouts to back him. If everyone is present, McCarthy will need 218 votes. Republicans will seat 222 lawmakers, so McCarthy can leave only four GOP minds unchanged. 

The conference will meet at 9:30 am, likely to hear McCarthy’s final appeal.

KEVIN MCCARTHY MAKES MAJOR CONCESSION TO CONSERVATIVES AS HIS SPEAKER BID HANGS BY THREAD

McCarthy has long been viewed with suspicion by some on the right. It was members of the conservative House Freedom Caucus who caused him to stand down in 2015, when he was expected to replace John Boehner as speaker. They viewed McCarthy as a politician whose heart belongs to the Washington establishment, the ruling elite who for decades have defied conservative efforts to stem the relentless expansion of the federal government. It is lawmakers from the same Caucus who are literally barring the door to McCarthy’s ascension to power, despite years of effort by the Californian to prove he was one of them.

The course of events Tuesday could develop in a variety of ways, ranging anywhere from an orderly coronation, to a circus, to utter chaos. If the conservatives opposing McCarthy are bluffing and simply holding out until the last minute for all the concessions they can get, including the right of any single member to force a vote at any time to take down the speaker, then they’ll cave and McCarthy will glide to victory. Or, they could just make their point by denying him the speakership on the first ballot or two and cause some dyspepsia before relenting during a later ballot. 

Or, everything could fall apart. 

NEWT GINGRICH BLASTS REPUBLICANS WHO OPPOSE KEVIN MCCARTHY AS SPEAKER: ‘IT’S HIM OR CHAOS’

Some Republicans are threatening to join with Democrats if McCarthy doesn’t prevail and elect a “moderate.” McCarthy allies have held up the prospect of the Democratic candidate, Hakim Jeffries, sneaking in with a majority of the vote as Republicans devour their own. Minority Whip Steve Scalise of Louisiana, the House GOP’s second most powerful lawmaker, could emerge as a widely acceptable conservative alternative. But he says he is supporting McCarthy, and some of the Californian’s backers say they won’t support a “spite” vote for Scalise. There’s even talk of lawmakers trotting in someone from outside the House to seize the gavel, since the speaker doesn’t have to be a lawmaker. But who could that possibly be?

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Though he may face humiliating eviction from the speaker’s office, as an elected representative, one piece of real estate McCarthy cannot be forced from is the House floor. And there he pledges to remain for the minutes, hours or even days it could take to decide his fate.

Kelly Phares contributed to this report.

 

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