Month: January 2023

Minneapolis
CNN
 — 

Every year the Federal Reserve’s policymaking committee — aka the officials who decide interest rate moves — gets a slight refresh, with four of the district presidents rotating out as official voting members and four rotating in.

The 2023 rotation brings a more dovish-leaning flock, and it comes during a critical year for the US central bank and the American economy.

This year the Federal Open Market Committee’s new voting members include the newest district president Austan Goolsbee, head of the Chicago Fed; Patrick Harker, of the Philadelphia Fed; Lorie Logan, the Dallas Fed president who started in August 2022; and Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed.

Rotating out as voting members are James Bullard of the St. Louis Fed; Susan Collins of the Boston Fed; Esther George, the Kansas City Fed chief who’s also retiring this month; and Loretta Mester of the Cleveland Fed.

On the whole the FOMC contingent remains largely similar, with eight of the 12 voting members continuing from 2022. The non-voting members still lend their voices and perspectives to the proceedings.

Following a stretch of seven consecutive heavy-handed interest rate hikes last year to battle rising prices, the Fed this year is expected to take a more delicate approach to its blunt monetary policy tools by downshifting on rate increases to an eventual idle.

For new Fed members, be they governors or district presidents, it can take a while to stake out their territory and potentially differ from consensus, said Ellen Meade, a Duke University economics professor who had a 25-year career at the Fed.

History has shown that the Reserve bank presidents typically tend to dissent more than board members; however, even that is a small percentage — about 7% — of votes cast, she added.

“I’m not expecting that we will see a lot of dissent in terms of votes,” she said. “I think where we might see it is how they color the data that they’re seeing.”

“Hawks” and “doves” are commonly used terms to describe Fed members’ differing monetary policy approaches. Doves tend to favor looser monetary policy and issues like low unemployment over low inflation. Hawks, however, favor robust rate hikes and keeping inflation low above all else.

“If I had to qualify them as the hawkish- or dovish-leaning, I would say that last year’s constellation was a reasonably hawkish one, and this year’s constellation is almost certainly not quite as hawkish,” Meade said.

That could change, however, if Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard leaves to head President Joe Biden’s economic council. Brainard has been considered as leaning more dovish than Powell and others, so her departure could result in a more hawkish shift in ideology at the top of the Fed.

This particular Fed is obviously not quite as well known, Meade noted, adding that “because we have some new policymakers voting in 2023, we don’t have as much information on their policy inclinations as we did for last year’s voters.”

For any potential split to occur would take some large moves in labor market outcomes – something not seen to this point, Meade said.

“If [moderating inflation] holds up and the labor market softens but doesn’t take a very negative turn, then I think consensus is with us,” she said. “I think the question is what happens if the labor market starts to turn quickly?”

The Fed has indicated, through its economic projections, that it would tolerate unemployment rising to the 4.5% to 4.75% range. But if that grows closer or past 5% and inflation hasn’t moderated as much as desired, “then I think we’re in a place where we’re going to see more signs of disagreement.”

As it stands now, Fed officials have largely been singing from the same songbook, said Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist and founder of Sahm Consulting.

“Whether it was voting members or non-voting members, you didn’t see a lot of pushback in public,” she said. “There was really a unified force of ‘we’re going to go big, and we’re going to go fast.’”

That unified messaging continued during recent speeches on how the Fed would slow it down, be patient and stay the course, Sahm added.

“The Fed is being very clear across the board, even people you would think of as more ‘dovish,’ that they do not want to let up too soon and get us into a situation where then they have to come back and do even more,” she said. “I don’t think that switching up who’s voting will matter much.”

“They’re all hawks now,” Sahm added.

The Fed also does not want to be in a position where it is lulled into a false sense of security by positive inflation data, she added. Fed Governor Christopher Waller put it bluntly in a speech last week: “We do not want to be head-faked.”

“It’s going to take months and months of good news, and frankly, we’re in store for a bumpy ride this year,” Sahm said. “It’s not like every month is going to be good news on inflation.”

2023 Federal Open Market Committee

Permanent voting members (Board of Governors):

Jerome Powell, chair

Lael Brainard, vice chair

Michael Barr, vice chair for supervision

Michelle Bowman, governor

Lisa Cook, governor

Philip Jefferson, governor

Christopher Waller, governor

Voting Districts:

John Williams, New York (permanent voting district)

*Austan Goolsbee, Chicago

*Patrick Harker, Philadelphia

*Lorie Logan, Dallas

*Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis

Non-voting districts:

Helen Mucciolo, interim first vice president, New York

Loretta Mester, Cleveland

Thomas Barkin, Richmond

Raphael Bostic, Atlanta

Mary Daly, San Francisco

James Bullard, St. Louis

Esther George, Kansas City (plans to retire this month)

Sign up for CNN’s Wonder Theory science newsletter. Explore the universe with news on fascinating discoveries, scientific advancements and more.

CNN
 — 

Chimpanzee teens may not be so different from the ones living in our homes, a new study says.

Except that your teen might be more impulsive.

Researchers worked with 40 chimpanzees born in the wild while they were at a sanctuary in the Republic of Congo, playing games that tested the adolescent animals’ orientation toward risk-taking and impulsivity, according to the study published January 23 in the Journal of Experimental Psychology: General by the American Psychological Association.

“Human adolescents are grappling with changing bodies and brains, and tend to be more impulsive, risk-seeking, and less able to regulate emotions than adults,” said lead study author Dr. Alexandra Rosati, associate professor of psychology and anthropology at the University of Michigan, via email. “Chimpanzees face many of the same kinds of challenges as humans as they grow up.”

The study described chimpanzees’ adolescence as a period from about ages 8 to 15 in a 50-year life span. Like young humans, they experience rapid hormone changes, new social bonds, increased aggression and a competition for social status.

Teen chimpanzees are overlooked in studies compared with infants and adults, said Dr. Aaron Sandel, an assistant professor of anthropology at the University of Texas at Austin, who was not involved in the current study.

“For a while there was a pretty big gap in the literature on (chimpanzee) adolescents,” Sandel said, noting that researchers often don’t focus on this period. Scientists may avoid studying teen chimps because their own human experiences with teenage years are complicated, he said.

The new study found that adolescent chimpanzees were more likely to take risks in their games than their adult counterparts, but they just as likely would wait for a greater delayed reward.

But human teens are known to be more likely to take a smaller, more immediate reward, the study noted.

The chimpanzees underwent two tests with food rewards. These animals tended to dislike cucumbers while liking peanuts somewhat and loving bananas.

The first test involved a bit of a gamble. Both adult and teen chimpanzees were asked to choose between two containers: one that always had peanuts and another that had either the dreaded cucumber or treasured banana, the study said.

The adolescent chimps were more likely to take a risk and go for the cucumber or banana container than the adults, the study said. Both groups showed similar negative reactions – such as moaning, whimpering, screaming and banging on the table – when they ended up with a cucumber.

The second test resembled a well-known one that has been given to human children. Chimpanzees had the option of having one banana slice immediately or waiting for a minute and then getting three slices.

Both adults and adolescents waited for the three slices at a similar rate, but the teens were more likely to throw a fit while they waited a minute, the study said.

In a similar test, human teens were more likely to take the smaller treat right away, according to the study.

“Prior work indicates that chimpanzees are quite patient compared to other animals, and this study shows that their ability to delay gratification is already mature at a fairly young age, unlike in humans,” Rosati said.

Sandel noted that it is important to be careful about comparing the experience of humans with other animals. While primates are our closest relatives, we are different species, he pointed out.

So how might a parent handle a teen who engages in risky behavior and hates to wait for a reward?

The first step is to understand what is going on in their developing brains, said Dr. Hina Talib, an adolescent medicine specialist and associate professor of pediatrics at the Albert Einstein College of Medicine in New York City.

“I think teenagers get a bad rap,” she said. “We often think of them as risky little devils. It does come from some element of truth.”

The human teenage years are a time of explosive growth and development, she added.

Their brains are wired to seek out new experiences and information, which often means taking risks, Talib said.

At this time, they can try new things, build their ideas of who they are and try on different identities, said Tina Bryson, a Pasadena, California, therapist and author of “The Power of Showing Up: How Parental Presence Shapes Who Our Kids Become and How Their Brains Get Wired.”

They learn from the information they gain, which can help them manage their behavior better – eventually, Talib said.

Families can encourage them to try new things, she said, while providing ground rules and support that will help keep them safe.

“We want you to go anywhere and do everything … Here is where we might step in or where we have house rules about something,’” Talib recommended that parents say. Your conversations should be “coming from a perspective of we are here as the floor, as the safety net as you go and have these amazing trapeze experiences.”

And while their brains are growing a lot, not every area is able to be fully and optimally utilized at the same time.

Late middle and early high schoolers might be relying on the parts of the brain that rule emotion and reactivity, she added, while their decision-making and reasoning parts are busy growing.

That doesn’t mean that teens are not capable of good decision-making and long-term planning, she added – you just have to help set them up for success.

“When things are calm, they are able to problem solve just as well as adults,” Talib said. Help them stay calm when they are in trouble and need to solve a problem and save the difficult conversations for when they are no longer stressed out, she added.

Instead of worrying about how to get rid of their impulsivity, Bryson recommended finding ways to help strengthen empathetic, thoughtful, and reasoned decision-making.

Encourage them to pause before acting and walk through the thinking process with them, she said. You can also talk through how you think through your own decisions, Bryson said.

And while their brains may be undergoing changes, be sure to call out the things they are doing well, Talib said.

“The more you do that, the more you help them see themselves in a positive light, the more that gets hardwired in them,” she said, “and they are better able to face the world around them.”