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Without further actions to reduce planet-warming emissions, it will be “impossible” to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), the United Nations said in a new report Thursday.
“Unless global emissions in 2030 are brought below the levels implied by existing policies and current” goals, it will “ become impossible to reach a pathway that would limit global warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot,” the report said.
It also said that not bringing policies below nations’ current goals would “strongly increase the challenge” of limiting warming to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit).
These levels are significant because if they are surpassed, the Earth is likely to cross certain “tipping points,” like the melting of the Greenland ice sheet, which will have major impacts on our climate system and be difficult to reverse.
The U.N. report warns that countries are not living up to their pledged 2030 goals, but that even if those goals are met, emissions will still be above where they need to be to meet the Paris Agreement’s goals.
In addition to calling for “accelerated mitigation action in this decade,” it also called for a “quantum leap in ambition” as countries look ahead to their 2035 goals.
Under the agreement, countries must put forward a new set of national climate goals every five years. The plans for 2035 are due by February 2025.
The report comes a few weeks ahead of this year’s global climate summit, which will take place next month in Azerbaijan.
The changing climate is already causing and expected to exacerbate an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather, including flooding, droughts and heat waves.
It is also making hurricanes more intense and causes them to intensify more rapidly due to hotter ocean temperatures.
Whether or not the U.S. stays in the Paris Agreement after this year likely depends on the result of November’s election, as former President Trump has said he will once again withdraw if he’s elected.
Under President Biden, the U.S. announced a goal of cutting its emissions at least in half by 2030 compared to 2005 levels.
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