The POLITICO race to watch: Wisconsin Senate

Congress

Candidates: Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) and businessman Eric Hovde (R).

Ad spending since Labor Day: $55.8 million for Democrats; $48.5 million for Republicans.

Past results: Baldwin won reelection in 2018 with 55.4 percent of the vote against then-challenger and state Sen. Leah Vukmir (R), who received 44.6 percent.

2020 presidential result: Biden 49.6 percent, Trump 48.9 percent

Cook Political Report rating: Toss-up.

Some background: Baldwin has been widely seen as a formidable incumbent in Washington, having survived her last reelection bid by a double-digit margin. But that 2018 cycle included nationwide shifts toward Democrats in the wake of former President Donald Trump’s first two years in office.

Hovde, meanwhile, had early backing from the National Republican Senatorial Committee after hopping in the race earlier this year. He was recruited to run after the entirety of the Republican congressional delegation from Wisconsin passed on a Senate bid.

The state of play: Baldwin’s polling lead in the race has shrunk in recent weeks, prompting some concern from Democrats. The presidential race will also have a significant impact in this state.

Why you should care: If Republicans flip this seat, it’d be a strong pickup, and could ensure or widen a Senate majority for the party. On the flip side, Senate Democrats need Baldwin around for their slim shot at keeping control of the chamber, or keeping the GOP’s potential majority a small one.

More on the candidates: Baldwin is a two-term incumbent who also served in the House for a decade. Hovde comes from the financial industry.

The issues: Abortion, the economy and wealth. Hovde has repeatedly hit Baldwin in advertising for her life partner’s role in the financial industry, while Baldwin has repeatedly hit Hovde for his work out-of-state in the banking industry.

Both candidates go-to campaign meals …

Baldwin: “We now have beautiful fall weather here in Wisconsin and I always love chili or another great soup.”

Hovde: “After a long day on the campaign trail, nothing beats fresh Wisconsin Walleye.”

Anthony Adragna contributed to this report.

Every day POLITICO will highlight one race to watch. Yesterday’s: Alaska House.