McCarthy heads to grueling speaker vote with fate in limbo

“I earned this job. We earned this majority, and God dammit we are going to win it today,” McCarthy said to a standing ovation, according to lawmakers in the room.

After weeks of intense, down-to-the-wire negotiations, McCarthy is out of time to lock down the needed 218 votes. With his yearslong effort to claim the speakership trapped in limbo, the conference meeting Tuesday morning is a sign of the chaos still to come in during votes on the House floor. And after having his speakership aspirations ripped away from him in 2015, his allies say this time he’s prepared to fight until the potentially bitter end.

It wasn’t just the California Republican calling out the conservative hardliners at the conference meeting. Many of McCarthy’s frustrated supporters, too, unloaded on the band of detractors. At one point, Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), the top Republican on the House Armed Services Committee, pushed the idea that any Republican who opposes McCarthy should be stripped of committee assignments.

One of McCarthy’s chief antagonists, Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), spoke up to defend his position — and lashed out against Roger’s remarks about keeping fellow Republicans off committees, shouting profanities at his colleague. Rogers said after the meeting that his warning that the Steering Committee will block McCarthy opponents from getting committee assignments wasn’t just a threat: “I promised it.”

And McCarthy shot back at Roy’s defense of his opposition: “You’re not voting against me, it’s against the conference and the country.”

Roy wasn’t the only Republican vowing to vote against McCarthy to speak up. Reps. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) and Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) both reiterated their stances to the conference. The GOP leader responded to Perry: “What’s left? What do you want?”

Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), another anti-McCarthy Republican, told members as he left the room: “Nothing’s changed.”

Other anti-McCarthy members, including Perry and Reps. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) and Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), publicly railed against McCarthy after the closed-door meeting, arguing that his allies were resorting to political threats instead of making a deal. Boebert had just announced her public opposition Tuesday morning, along with Rep. Dan Bishop (R-N.C.).

“This [meeting] was about a beat down and a simulated unity in the room that really doesn’t exist,” Perry said.

Republicans left the raucous huddle with deep concerns about the fate of their floor vote, unsure how long or how many speaker ballots to expect.

“Obviously, I think it will go to more than one ballot,” said Rep. Robert Aderholt (R-Ala), one of the most senior members of the House.

McCarthy supporters say they expect him to keep Republicans on the House floor, instead of trying to adjourn for off-the-floor strategy sessions between ballots, as he hopes to grind down his opponents. And while a speakership vote has gone past the first ballot only once since the Civil War, Republicans are mentally preparing not just for multiple ballots, but also multiple days of voting.

“He’s steadfast. He’s in this until hell freezes,” said Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), a McCarthy backer.

McCarthy appeared unbowed Tuesday morning after what he described as an “intense conference.”

“I’m not going anywhere,” he said. “I have the record for the longest speech ever on the floor, I don’t have a problem getting the record for the most votes for speaker, too.”

Even before the explosive meeting, early signs Tuesday didn’t point in McCarthy’s favor. Perry offered blistering criticism of McCarthy just before the meeting, saying conservatives had asked for several concessions like commitments on committee seats that, in turn, would get him to 218 votes, but that the California Republican declined.

“Kevin McCarthy had an opportunity to be Speaker of the House. He rejected it,” said Perry, the chair of the conservative House Freedom Caucus.

McCarthy has worked fervently to lock down support, releasing a long list of concessions he’s prepared to make on rules changes, including making it easier to depose a speaker. But seven conservatives — Good, Norman, Gaetz, Boebert, Bishop and Reps. Andy Biggs of Arizona and Matt Rosendale of Montana — have vowed to oppose the Republican leader, and other members remain publicly undecided.

In a significant win for conservatives, McCarthy set the number of Republican backers needed to force a vote on deposing the speaker at five, to the dismay of some rank-and-file members. It’s an about-face from just weeks ago, when the conference set the threshold to prompt such a vote, known as the motion to vacate, at a majority of its members. And some conservatives argue that’s not good enough — they want one member to be able to force such a motion.

“I still think that, at the end of the day, Kevin gets it. And the people that [stand] to lose are the hardliners that have negotiated in bad faith,” said Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R-Pa.), the current chief deputy whip.

McCarthy and allies like Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) say the latest rules package release has moved votes his way. But other members signaled otherwise.

Nine on-the-fence Republicans issued a letter after the rules package was released to say the proposed changes aren’t yet enough to win them over. More ominously, they warned that his recent commitments come “almost impossibly late to address continued deficiencies ahead of the opening of the 118th Congress on January 3rd.”

It sparked frustration from McCarthy’s supporters, who questioned what else he’d have to offer his opponents in order to secure their votes.

“We’ve gone really, really far on a lot of fronts. … People can’t ask any more from him. He’s done everything he possibly can,” Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), the co-chair of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus, said about McCarthy, whom he characterized as “not giving up.”

Still, some Republicans say there are members who have kept quiet but will publicly announce they oppose McCarthy the day of the vote, limiting his opportunities to win their support. Others have questioned whether the anti-McCarthy coalition is arranging to have more members vote against him on a second ballot, in an attempt to make the Californian look weaker.

And there’s speculation that other names besides Biggs, who has acted as a McCarthy opposition figurehead but is not mounting a real bid for the gavel, will emerge to challenge McCarthy.

Democratic leaders, meanwhile, aren’t looking to make it any easier on McCarthy. They’ve told their members not to miss any ballots, which would have lowered the number of votes the GOP leader needed, and to vote for the incoming minority leader, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.).

Some Republicans say McCarthy should make a deal to persuade about a dozen Democrats to leave the floor after several ballots, allowing him to skate through despite a handful of opponents among his own conference. Others, like Bacon, have floated that if conservatives block McCarthy, they could work with a band of centrist Democrats to elect a more moderate Republican instead.

But after weeks of behind-the-scenes drama, Republicans say they are ready to take the fight to the floor.

“We’re negotiating with Jell-O,” Armstrong said. ”It’s just time to start voting and keep voting.”