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Vice President Harris and former President Trump are statistically tied in the battleground state of Nevada, according to the Nevada Public Opinion Pulse (NVPOP) survey released Tuesday by Noble Predictive Insights (NPI).
Harris holds a one-point lead over Trump, 48 percent to 47 percent, among likely voters in a head-to-head matchup in Nevada, according to the survey. In a four-way race that includes Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver, Trump and Harris are split, each with 47 percent support.
Harris performs slightly better among registered voters. In a two-way race against Trump, she leads by three points, 48 percent to 45 percent. In a four-way race among registered voters, she is ahead by the same margin, 46 percent to 43 percent.
In all four matchups, the distance between the two candidates falls within the margins of error.
Harris’s performance in the NVPOP represents a significant shift from the February 2024 survey, when President Biden was still in the race. Trump, at the time, led Biden by 5 points in a head-to-head matchup, and by 7 points in a multi-candidate race.
The poll also shows a generic Democratic candidate holds a four-point advantage over a Republican, among both likely and registered voters, when voters were asked about preferences on a congressional ballot.
NPI Chief of Research David Byler said the results of the survey suggest good news for Democrats.
“After Joe Biden exited the race, Harris quickly pulled this race into a virtual tie in the Electoral College. And, in recent elections when the Electoral College has been close to even, Nevada has tilted ever so slightly to the Democrats. That’s exactly what we’re seeing here,” Byler said, in an NPI press release.
Nevada is one of seven battleground states seen as consequential in determining the outcome of November’s election. According to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s Nevada polling average, Harris has a 1.5-point lead over Trump, 48.2 percent to 46.7 percent. Nationally, her average advantage grows to 3.9 percentage points over Trump, 50.4 percent to 46.5 percent.
The poll was conducted Sept. 9-16 and included 812 registered voters, including 692 likely voters, in Nevada. The margin of error is 3.44 percentage points for registered voters and 3.72 percentage points for likely voters.
Campaign, News, State Watch, 2024 presidential election, Nevada Read More
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