China, Russia tried to meddle in 2022 midterms: US intel

International News | The Hill

A newly declassified intelligence report revealed China, Russia and Iran sought to meddle in the 2022 U.S. midterm elections at higher rates than they did in the 2018 midterms.

A report produced in December 2022 — but declassified last week — laid out the intelligence community’s (IC) assessments of the extent of foreign threats to the U.S. elections in 2022.

The IC did not find “a directive from any foreign leader to undertake a comprehensive, whole-of-government influence campaign,” as the Russians carried out in the 2016 election. And it said the level of foreign activity was lower than what is expected during presidential cycles.

Still, the IC detected a “diverse and growing group of foreign actors … engaging in such operations, including China’s greater willingness to conduct election influence activities than in past cycles.”

“The involvement of more foreign actors probably reflects shifting geopolitical risk calculus, perceptions that election influence activity has been normalized, the low cost but potentially high reward of such activities, and a greater emphasis on election security in IC collection and analysis,” the report found.

The IC found there were notably not persistent efforts to gain access to election infrastructure or to change votes, which the report noted is “technically challenging.” Instead, foreign actors now seem mostly focused on “amplifying authentic US public narratives to try to influence electoral outcomes, increase mistrust in US election processes, and stoke sociopolitical divisions.”

“This approach provides deniability as foreign actors propagate US content to try to exploit existing fissures,” the report said.

The IC had “high confidence” in its finding that the Russian government and its proxies “sought to denigrate the Democratic Party before the midterm elections and undermine confidence in the election, most likely to undermine US support for Ukraine.”

In recent months, support has been waning among Republicans to continue to provide aid to Ukraine as it fights against Russia’s invasion two years into the war.

The report assessed that Kremlin intelligence services conducted “extensive research and analysis of US audiences” to aid in their election meddling efforts. They identified “target demographics and the narratives and platforms that they perceived would appeal to these audiences.”

The IC also assessed with “high confidence” that China “tacitly approved efforts to try to influence a handful of midterm races” against politicians viewed as anti-China.

“[People’s Republic of China] leaders most likely see their growing efforts to magnify US societal divisions as a response to what the believe is an intensified US effort to promote democracy at China’s expense,” the report read.

The IC assessed with moderate confidence that Iran also tried to “exploit perceived social divisions and undermine confidence in US democratic institutions.” The report noted that Iran’s efforts were likely limited by the available resources at the government’s disposal amid internal unrest.

The report noted that “a range of additional foreign actors took some steps to try to undermine US politicians seeking reelection,” specifically naming Cuba.

The IC assessed that Cuba’s efforts were “smaller in scale and more narrowly targeted than the activities conducted by China, Iran and Russia.” Specifically, the IC report said Cuba focused its efforts on candidates in Florida, “although it probably attempted to shape impressions of other US politicians.”