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‘Halftime Report’ traders like financials, see sector doing well even in a recession

January 4, 2023 Published by Sarah Min

US Top News and Analysis

As investors position their portfolios for the year ahead, one sector is a standout pick for the investment panel on CNBC’s “Halftime Report” : financials. Financials are well-positioned to deal with volatility after preparing for a bearish scenario in 2023, according to the investment committee on Wednesday. The panel included Joe Terranova, Karen Firestone, Jenny Harrington and Jim Lebenthal. “In every recession, there’s one sector, whose balance sheet is most negatively affected by the recession. So if you go back to 2000, 2001, it was technology. Well, what happens? That sector cleans up its balance sheet. and the next recession, they’re able to endure through that environment,” said Terranova, senior managing director at Virtus Investment Partners. “In ’08, technology, best sector. So, if you think about ’08, financials’ most negatively impacted, cleaned up the balance sheets, I think they’re gonna be resilient and recessionary environment,” Terranova added. Gilman Hill Asset Management CEO Jenny Harrington named financial stocks as her top 2023 sector pick, saying the sector is undervalued after reviewing its price/earnings to growth ratio, or PEG ratio. Financials had the second-lowest PEG ratio among the S & P sectors, after consumer discretionary stocks. What’s more, banks may have bolstered their reserves for a truly bearish scenario. “If my friend [Jim Lebenthal] is right, and we have no recession or not a terrible recession, banks should end up doing really well next year,” Harrington said. The financials sector in the S & P 500 was down by 12% in 2022, still outperforming the broader market index despite the drop. Similarly, Aureus Asset Management Chairman and CEO Karen Firestone chose financials as her top sector in 2023, though she specified she prefers companies apart from the big banks in the sector. Firestone named S & P Global , Charles Schwab , First Republic Bank and Blackstone as stocks that she owns, all of which are down severely after the past year. Shares of S & P Global lost 29% in 2022, while First Republic Bank plunged nearly 41%. Meanwhile, Blackstone dropped more than 42% last year. Regardless, the investor expects these stocks are more attractive in the coming year, given their higher cash flow and dividend yields. Notably, Firestone called Charles Schwab one of her top 2023 stock picks, saying the business has a lot of momentum for asset growth, and will be supported by higher interest rates. According to Firestone, “It’s an organic growth story, and we think that this multiple can sustain itself.” The other investment panel members approved of the picks. “I don’t think we’re going to have a recession,” Cerity Partners’ Lebenthal said. “The balance sheets are in great shape, which means their lending is going to continue, and if you don’t have a recession, then all that capital expenditure that you’ve heard me talk about for months comes to fruition.” “That needs financing, okay, and that financing is going to come from the banks, whether it’s in loans or underwriting debt. Economic activity benefits the financials,” Lebenthal added. Here is the full 2023 stock picks from the group: Karen Firestone: Charles Schwab, Align Technology, American Tower; Sector Pick: Financials Jenny Harrington: Kohl’s, Uber, B & G Foods; Sector Pick: Financials Jim Lebenthal: Boeing, Cleveland-Cliffs, Paramount Global; Sector Pick: Industrials

Drone advances in Ukraine could bring dawn of killer robots

January 4, 2023 Published by The Associated Press

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Drone advances in Ukraine have accelerated a long-anticipated technology trend that could soon bring the world’s first fully autonomous fighting robots to the battlefield, inaugurating a new age of warfare.

The longer the war lasts, the more likely it becomes that drones will be used to identify, select and attack targets without help from humans, according to military analysts, combatants and artificial intelligence researchers.

That would mark a revolution in military technology as profound as the introduction of the machine gun. Ukraine already has semi-autonomous attack drones and counter-drone weapons endowed with AI. Russia also claims to possess AI weaponry, though the claims are unproven. But there are no confirmed instances of a nation putting into combat robots that have killed entirely on their own.

Experts say it may be only a matter of time before either Russia or Ukraine, or both, deploy them.

“Many states are developing this technology,” said Zachary Kallenborn, a George Mason University weapons innovation analyst. ”Clearly, it’s not all that difficult.”

The sense of inevitability extends to activists, who have tried for years to ban killer drones but now believe they must settle for trying to restrict the weapons’ offensive use.

Ukraine’s digital transformation minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, agrees that fully autonomous killer drones are “a logical and inevitable next step” in weapons development. He said Ukraine has been doing “a lot of R&D in this direction.”

“I think that the potential for this is great in the next six months,” Fedorov told The Associated Press in a recent interview.

Ukrainian Lt. Col. Yaroslav Honchar, co-founder of the combat drone innovation nonprofit Aerorozvidka, said in a recent interview near the front that human war fighters simply cannot process information and make decisions as quickly as machines.

Ukrainian military leaders currently prohibit the use of fully independent lethal weapons, although that could change, he said.

“We have not crossed this line yet – and I say ‘yet’ because I don’t know what will happen in the future.” said Honchar, whose group has spearheaded drone innovation in Ukraine, converting cheap commercial drones into lethal weapons.

Russia could obtain autonomous AI from Iran or elsewhere. The long-range Shahed-136 exploding drones supplied by Iran have crippled Ukrainian power plants and terrorized civilians but are not especially smart. Iran has other drones in its evolving arsenal that it says feature AI.

Without a great deal of trouble, Ukraine could make its semi-autonomous weaponized drones fully independent in order to better survive battlefield jamming, their Western manufacturers say.

Those drones include the U.S.-made Switchblade 600 and the Polish Warmate, which both currently require a human to choose targets over a live video feed. AI finishes the job. The drones, technically known as “loitering munitions,” can hover for minutes over a target, awaiting a clean shot.

“The technology to achieve a fully autonomous mission with Switchblade pretty much exists today,” said Wahid Nawabi, CEO of AeroVironment, its maker. That will require a policy change — to remove the human from the decision-making loop — that he estimates is three years away.

Drones can already recognize targets such as armored vehicles using cataloged images. But there is disagreement over whether the technology is reliable enough to ensure that the machines don’t err and take the lives of noncombatants.

The AP asked the defense ministries of Ukraine and Russia if they have used autonomous weapons offensively – and whether they would agree not to use them if the other side similarly agreed. Neither responded.

If either side were to go on the attack with full AI, it might not even be a first.

An inconclusive U.N. report suggested that killer robots debuted in Libya’s internecine conflict in 2020, when Turkish-made Kargu-2 drones in full-automatic mode killed an unspecified number of combatants.

A spokesman for STM, the manufacturer, said the report was based on “speculative, unverified” information and “should not be taken seriously.” He told the AP the Kargu-2 cannot attack a target until the operator tells it to do so.

Fully autonomous AI is already helping to defend Ukraine. Utah-based Fortem Technologies has supplied the Ukrainian military with drone-hunting systems that combine small radars and unmanned aerial vehicles, both powered by AI. The radars are designed to identify enemy drones, which the UAVs then disable by firing nets at them — all without human assistance.

The number of AI-endowed drones keeps growing. Israel has been exporting them for decades. Its radar-killing Harpy can hover over anti-aircraft radar for up to nine hours waiting for them to power up.

Other examples include Beijing’s Blowfish-3 unmanned weaponized helicopter. Russia has been working on a nuclear-tipped underwater AI drone called the Poseidon. The Dutch are currently testing a ground robot with a .50-caliber machine gun.

Honchar believes Russia, whose attacks on Ukrainian civilians have shown little regard for international law, would have used killer autonomous drones by now if the Kremlin had them.

“I don’t think they’d have any scruples,” agreed Adam Bartosiewicz, vice president of WB Group, which makes the Warmate.

AI is a priority for Russia. President Vladimir Putin said in 2017 that whoever dominates that technology will rule the world. In a Dec. 21 speech, he expressed confidence in the Russian arms industry’s ability to embed AI in war machines, stressing that “the most effective weapons systems are those that operate quickly and practically in an automatic mode.”

Russian officials already claim their Lancet drone can operate with full autonomy.

“It’s not going to be easy to know if and when Russia crosses that line,” said Gregory C. Allen, former director of strategy and policy at the Pentagon’s Joint Artificial Intelligence Center.

Switching a drone from remote piloting to full autonomy might not be perceptible. To date, drones able to work in both modes have performed better when piloted by a human, Allen said.

The technology is not especially complicated, said University of California-Berkeley professor Stuart Russell, a top AI researcher. In the mid-2010s, colleagues he polled agreed that graduate students could, in a single term, produce an autonomous drone “capable of finding and killing an individual, let’s say, inside a building,” he said.

An effort to lay international ground rules for military drones has so far been fruitless. Nine years of informal United Nations talks in Geneva made little headway, with major powers including the United States and Russia opposing a ban. The last session, in December, ended with no new round scheduled.

Washington policymakers say they won’t agree to a ban because rivals developing drones cannot be trusted to use them ethically.

Toby Walsh, an Australian academic who, like Russell, campaigns against killer robots, hopes to achieve a consensus on some limits, including a ban on systems that use facial recognition and other data to identify or attack individuals or categories of people.

“If we are not careful, they are going to proliferate much more easily than nuclear weapons,” said Walsh, author of “Machines Behaving Badly.” “If you can get a robot to kill one person, you can get it to kill a thousand.”

Scientists also worry about AI weapons being repurposed by terrorists. In one feared scenario, the U.S. military spends hundreds of millions writing code to power killer drones. Then it gets stolen and copied, effectively giving terrorists the same weapon.

To date, the Pentagon has neither clearly defined “an AI-enabled autonomous weapon” nor authorized a single such weapon for use by U.S. troops, said Allen, the former Defense Department official. Any proposed system must be approved by the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and two undersecretaries.

That’s not stopping the weapons from being developed across the U.S. Projects are underway at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, military labs, academic institutions and in the private sector.

The Pentagon has emphasized using AI to augment human warriors. The Air Force is studying ways to pair pilots with drone wingmen. A booster of the idea, former Deputy Defense Secretary Robert O. Work, said in a report last month that it “would be crazy not to go to an autonomous system” once AI-enabled systems outperform humans — a threshold that he said was crossed in 2015, when computer vision eclipsed that of humans.

Humans have already been pushed out in some defensive systems. Israel’s Iron Dome missile shield is authorized to open fire automatically, although it is said to be monitored by a person who can intervene if the system goes after the wrong target.

Multiple countries, and every branch of the U.S. military, are developing drones that can attack in deadly synchronized swarms, according to Kallenborn, the George Mason researcher.

So will future wars become a fight to the last drone?

That’s what Putin predicted in a 2017 televised chat with engineering students: “When one party’s drones are destroyed by drones of another, it will have no other choice but to surrender.”

___

Frank Bajak reported from Boston. Associated Press journalists Tara Copp in Washington, Garance Burke in San Francisco and Suzan Fraser in Turkey contributed to this report.

___

Follow the AP’s coverage of the war at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

___

This story has been updated to correct when the U.N. report was issued. It came out in 2021, not last year.

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Yes, Stress Is a Migraine Trigger—But It’s Far From the Only One

January 4, 2023 Published by Kara Jillian Brown

Well+Good

The last few years have been undeniably stressful. So, if you’ve noticed an uptick in migraine attacks, stress could be the culprit. But, the complete list of migraine triggers is long and very much based on your unique makeup. One thing is for sure, migraine attacks often happen when you deviate from your routine, says Nada Hindiyeh, MD, a headache specialist and clinical assistant professor of neurology at Stanford University.

“By far the most common trigger that we see is stress and about 70 percent of people with migraine are going to report that,” says Dr. Hindiyeh. “But so many other things can be triggers. One of the most important things I actually recommend to people with migraine or headaches is a really routine lifestyle because when you get thrown off or your brain gets thrown off, that’s when a lot of migraines can happen.”

It’s safe to say that from the start of the COVID-19 pandemic until now has been a pretty rocky ride. Routines have come and gone and changed multiple times over the last few years, and that’s had an effect on people with migraine.

“Because people have been, throughout this pandemic, thrown off of their routine, a lot of these things start to come into play,” says Dr. Hindiyeh. “You’re no longer going to the office at the same time, waking up at the same time, eating at the same time.” She explains that these changes in routine trigger hormonal changes and neuropeptide changes in the brain. “When you get triggered down that neuronal pathway, one of the pathways that get triggered is pain, because the brain senses something is off or different.”

Let’s back up, what exactly is migraine?

Before diving into the long list of migraine triggers, it’s important to know the textbook definition of migraine, says Stephen Silberstein, MD, director of the Headache Center at Thomas Jefferson University in Philadelphia.

“A migraine is a headache, but it has certain characteristics; a Picasso and a Rembrandt are both paintings, but they have different characteristics,” says Dr. Silberstein. “If you have a severe headache that comes and goes, that interferes with your life it’s more than likely migraine. The characteristics are moderate to severe, often throbbing. You don’t feel like moving about, it’s often one-sided, you’re often sick to your stomach, [and] you may have a sensitivity to light or sound.”

Adelene Jann, MD, migraine specialist and clinical assistant professor in the Department of Neurology at NYU Langone Health, says migraines typically last anywhere from four hours up to three days. Genetics also play a role. Dr. Jann says women are more likely to experience migraine than men. Dr. Hindiyeh adds that migraine is hereditary. “It’s a genetic disease, it’s hereditary, so people are born with a predisposition to having a hyperexcitable or hypersensitive brain,” says Dr. Hindiyeh.

With that said, to prevent migraine attacks, it’s important to understand your triggers. Explore the list of migraine triggers, below.

Here’s a list of potential migraine triggers related to changes in routine

1. Dehydration

“Dehydration is a big one, especially in the summer when it’s hot,” says Dr. Hindiyeh. To make sure you’re getting enough water, consider setting reminders or investing in a big water bottle.

2. Changes in weather

Many feel that they can predict the weather with their migraines. Dr. Hindiyeh says that for a lot of people, changes in weather, hot weather specifically for some and cold weather for others, can cause a migraine.

3. Skipping a meal

“Skipping a meal can be a big trigger as well,” says Dr. Hindiyeh. “We have people really routinely eat their meals at the same time every day.”

4. Changes in sleep

“Changes in sleep are another very, very big trigger,” says Dr. Hindiyeh. “It’s really about consistency.” You’ll want to make sure you’re going to bed at the same time every day, waking up at the same time every day, and not napping.

5. Hormonal changes

Menstrual cycles can also play a huge role. “We oftentimes see migraine first start in girls right around puberty around the time of their menarche,” says Dr. Hindiyeh. She says many experience more frequent migraines around their period. “For two-thirds of women, after menopause is when things actually get a lot better.”

6. Certain medications

“If you’re overusing certain medications, certain over-the-counter medications, or even migraine prescription medications, they can cause worsening or increased frequency of migraines,” says Dr. Hindiyeh. “Think about Advil or Tylenol. You think ‘Oh yeah, I can use that every once in a while.’ But when you start to use any of these more than 10 days a month, they can trigger more and more and more migraines.”

7. Extended screen time

“During this time people are on their screens—on their computers, on their iPad, on their phones—more than ever before,” says Dr. Hindiyeh. “Life has really shifted to a model where we have to use those constantly. And so the bright light from the screen or that constant need to be in front of it and trying to focus, that can be a huge trigger. I really recommend that people take breaks from it at least once every hour. Getting up and moving away from your screens.”

8. Skipping workouts

“One of my favorite things actually to help prevent migraine, and I can’t recommend this enough, is daily aerobic exercise,” says Dr. Hindiyeh. “So we know that daily aerobic exercise will help prevent migraines. But [for] people [who] aren’t able to go to the gym and maybe for them, a home workout isn’t as successful. Being thrown off that routine can be a big, big trigger as well.”

How to identify your triggers and get help

Migraine attacks can often have more than one trigger. Dr. Jann recommends tracking your migraines to try to pinpoint triggers.

“Keeping a headache diary can help track the frequency of your migraines and whether or not they are associated with common triggers, like menstruation, the weather, or certain foods,” says Dr. Jann. “The diary can be done on paper or on app on your phone. Be sure to bring your headache diary to your doctor’s appointment so that the doctor can review it and come up with treatment options.”

If the thought of tracking your migraines stresses you out, Dr. Hindiyeh says just being self-aware can help. “If you know that you’re on a very strict routine, you haven’t changed your sleeping schedule, you haven’t skipped any meals, you haven’t done this, but maybe you realize ‘okay, well I’m spending so much more time on the screen, something feels different,’ then that certainly can be playing a big role.”

Unfortunately, many people with migraine go untreated, but Dr. Silberstein explains that there are a lot of treatments available. “There are things like yoga, biofeedback, and meditation,” says Dr. Silberstien. “They enable you to stabilize your brain, they can actually relieve and prevent migraine. And there are new devices that are noninvasive which can be applied to your arm, your head, or your neck, and actually prevent and turn off a migraine attack.” Be sure to check in with your doctor and explore all of your options.

New to the job market? These 5 'soft' skills could give young workers an edge, according to LinkedIn

January 4, 2023 Published by CNBC News

As recession fears and layoffs make the headlines, fresh graduates may find themselves stumbling into an uncertain job market.

A recent survey of 1,000 U.S. graduates aged between 18 and 54 in the last 12 months indicated that many are anxious about their “career readiness.”

Almost half of recent graduates said they didn’t apply for entry level jobs because they felt underqualified, according to the survey.

And that’s even more of a challenge for those new to the workforce.

“One of the challenges that young workers may face is lack of experience as they enter the workforce,” said Pooja Chhabria, career expert and head of editorial for Asia-Pacific at LinkedIn.

Hard skills can help you get a recruiter’s attention, but soft skills can help you land the job.

Pooja Chhabria

career expert, LinkedIn

While Gen Z workers — those between 18 and 24 years old — may worry about their lack of experience, some industries are “aggressively” hiring, according to LinkedIn.

For example, job postings on the platform have grown year on year in October 2022 for sectors like government administration — which registered a 52% growth in Australia and a whopping 88% in Singapore.

Retail job postings grew 114% in Australia and 49% in India, while openings in logistics and supply chain grew by 41% in Singapore.

Those jobs may be from different industries, but they have one thing in common — an emphasis soft skills, which Chhabria stressed are valued across multiple sectors and jobs.

How to stand out

Companies have been shifting from a “traditional experience-based” hiring approach to a skills-first one, Chhabria said.

That’s because of the “rapid pace of change and disruption” that industries are going through, and skills-based hiring helps employers to hire talent that matches businesses’ evolving needs, she added.

“87% of recruiters believe skills are crucial as they vet candidates. A skills-based approach also creates a much broader talent pool, and diversity of talent is necessary for remaining competitive in today’s marketplace.”

“LinkedIn data reveals that across Asia Pacific, a skills-based approach to hiring will increase the overall Gen Z talent pool by 10.8 times in Australia, 14.1 times in India and 7 times in Singapore,” she said.

The hiring rate in Asia-Pacific is still relatively high despite recession fears, says LinkedIn

While hard skills remain crucial to securing a job, soft skills can help candidates stand out from the pack.

“Hard skills can help you get a recruiter’s attention, but soft skills can help you land the job,” Chhabria added.

“Hard skills are the technical skills required to do your job. For instance, if you are applying to be a sales professional, then you need to have knowledge of sales processes and how to use a CRM platform,” she said.

“[But] you also need soft skills such as presentation skills to deliver a great sales pitch to your customer or communication skills so you can communicate with confidence with your team and the customer.”

These are the top five soft skills young workers should focus on building in the new year, according to LinkedIn:

Communication: Being able to communicate your ideas, views, and opinions concisely so people can understand what you are sharing.
Time management: With the rise of remote working, time management has become even more important for building trust with your employer and demonstrating the value you’re adding to the team.
Critical thinking: Ability to understand and address a situation based on all available facts and information.
Problem solving: Coming up with solutions and looking for new ways to resolve issues.
Interpersonal skills: In a post-pandemic workplace, the ability to build relationships and collaborate with teams globally is an important skill.

Taking on new assignments or projects can improve your ability to problem solve and provide opportunities to learn how to better handle stress, criticism, and conflict.

Pooja Chhabria

career expert, LinkedIn

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These 21 Republicans did not support McCarthy on Day 2 of the Speaker’s vote

January 4, 2023 Published by Mychael Schnell

Just In | The Hill

Twenty-one Republicans opted against supporting Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) on day two of the Speaker’s race, denying him the gavel on the fourth ballot.

McCarthy received 201 votes on Wednesday’s fourth ballot, short of the simple majority he needed to win the gavel. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.) received 212 votes.

Twenty Republicans voted for Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) instead of McCarthy, and one other GOP lawmaker — Rep. Victoria Spartz (Ind.) — voted present. Spartz voted for McCarthy on the first three ballots before moving to the present column on the fourth.

Spartz is the first member to vote present in the current Speaker’s race.

The same 20 Republicans who backed Donalds voted against McCarthy during the third ballot on Tuesday, throwing their support behind Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) for the top spot. Nineteen members of the group — all but Donalds — voted against McCarthy on the first and second ballot.

The House is now set to move to a fifth ballot. The Speaker’s race made history on Tuesday, marking the first time in a century that the position was not elected on the first ballot.

The outcome of the fourth ballot is a blow to McCarthy, who failed to flip any of his detractors into supporters. That came even after former President Trump urged all Republicans to vote for McCarthy, writing on Truth Social on Wednesday morning, “VOTE FOR KEVIN, CLOSE THE DEAL, TAKE THE VICTORY.”

“Kevin McCarthy will do a good job, and maybe even a GREAT JOB – JUST WATCH!” he added.

Here is a list of the Republicans who did not support McCarthy on the fourth ballot:

Rep. Andy Biggs (Ariz.)

Rep. Dan Bishop (N.C.)

Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.)

Rep.-elect Josh Brecheen (Okla.)

Rep. Michael Cloud (Texas)

Rep.-elect Eli Crane (Ariz.)

Rep. Andrew Clyde (Ga.)

Rep. Byron Donalds (Fla.)

Rep. Matt Gaetz (Fla.)

Rep. Bob Good (Va.)

Rep. Paul Gosar (Ariz.)

Rep. Andy Harris (Md.)

Rep.-elect Anna Paulina Luna (Fla.)

Rep. Mary Miller (Ill.)

Rep. Ralph Norman (S.C.)

Rep.-elect Andy Ogles (Tenn.)

Rep. Scott Perry (Pa.)

Rep. Matt Rosendale (Mont.)

Rep. Chip Roy (Texas)

Rep.-elect Keith Self (Texas)

Rep. Victoria Spartz (Ind.)

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Biden praises McConnell, touts infrastructure law in Kentucky

January 4, 2023 Published by Brett Samuels

Just In | The Hill

President Biden on Wednesday made an appeal to the value of bipartisanship during a trip to Kentucky, providing a stark split-screen moment with the chaos unfolding in the House back in Washington, D.C.

Biden delivered remarks in the shadow of the Brent Spence Bridge, which connects Kentucky and Ohio over the Ohio River, to tout investments from the bipartisan infrastructure law he signed in late 2021 that would improve local traffic and commerce.

But the speech was more broadly a nod to the president’s belief in collaboration and reaching across the aisle at a time when Republicans have been unable to muster the votes with their new majority to elect a Speaker in the House.

“I wanted to start off the new year at this historic project here in Ohio and Kentucky with a bipartisan group of officials because I believe it sends an important message, an important message to the entire country,” Biden said. “We can work together. We can get things done. We can move the nation forward if we just drop a little bit of our egos and focus on what’s needed in the country.”

Biden was joined by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), recently retired Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) to announce new funding for the bridge.

Biden repeatedly praised McConnell, a rival of Democrats for decades who many on the left see as a symbol of GOP obstructionism.

“I’m especially happy to be here with my friend and colleague of many years, and I might add the longest serving leader in the United States Senate,” Biden said, recognizing McConnell.

The president went on to note that he and McConnell don’t agree on everything but said the senator is “a man of his word” who is “willing to find common ground to get things done.”

Biden credited McConnell, Brown and Portman for their work on the bipartisan infrastructure law, which contained roughly $1 trillion to fund roads, bridges, railways and other major projects across the country.

More than $1 billion in funds will go toward upgrades and repairs for the Brent Spence Bridge, which has been decaying for years. The money will be used to upgrade the existing structure and build a new bridge next to it that will improve traffic on the Interstate 71 and Interstate 75 corridor, which is a major freight route from Canada to Florida.

The second bridge will alleviate local traffic jams, Biden said, and allow tractor-trailers to flow more freely as they transport cargo and goods.

While Biden was in Kentucky, Vice President Harris was in Illinois to speak about infrastructure funds that will be used to rehabilitate drawbridges that cross the Calumet River near Chicago, allowing for easier movement of marine traffic and port traffic.

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg was in Connecticut on Wednesday to highlight infrastructure investments in the Gold Star Memorial Bridge, which carries I-95 traffic over the Thames River and connects New York and New England.

The travel, and the focus on a bipartisan piece of legislation, comes while the House GOP caucus is engulfed in drama in Washington, D.C.

As Biden was speaking in Kentucky, House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) again failed to hit the majority required to be elected Speaker. It was the fourth ballot cast by lawmakers to attempt to elect a Speaker since Tuesday. No Speaker election had gone past a first ballot in 100 years.

Upon leaving the White House for Kentucky, Biden called the inability to elect a leader in the House “embarrassing” but said he would remain focused on promoting his agenda and getting things done.

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Keep an eye on your accounts: All the elite status rollovers and deposits to expect this month

January 4, 2023 Published by Kyle Olsen

The Points Guy

For elite status seekers, the new year comes with what’s dreaded most — elite status qualification metrics resetting to zero.

Travel elite status operates under the principle that you requalify year after year. Last year, you hopefully earned the status — or statuses — that you’ll enjoy this year. And unless you have lifetime status, you’ll likely need to requalify this year to extend your status for another year.

Luckily, several major loyalty programs offer status rollover when you go above and beyond and other bonuses for holding a credit card or requalifying for elite status. However, these don’t always post simultaneously, so you should monitor your accounts to ensure everything posts properly.

With that in mind, here are the elite status rollovers you should expect this month and how to know if you’re eligible.

Delta Air Lines rollover MQMs

KYLE OLSEN/THE POINTS GUY

Earning Delta status requires Medallion Qualifying Miles (MQMs) or Medallion Qualifying Segments (MQSs) and Medallion Qualifying Dollars (MQDs). Here’s how many MQMs, MQSs and MQDs you must earn in 2023 to extend your Delta status.

Silver Medallion Status: 25,000 MQMs or 30 MQSs + 3,000 MQDs.
Gold Medallion Status: 50,000 MQMs or 60 MQSs + 8,000 MQDs.
Platinum Medallion Status: 75,000 MQMs or 100 MQSs + 12,000 MQDs.
Diamond Medallion Status: 125,000 MQMs or 140 Medallion Qualifying Segments + 20,000 MQDs.

Delta will roll over every MQM you earned above your status tier last year. For example, let’s say you’re a Platinum Medallion, but you finished 2022 with 105,000 MQMs. That means you’ll start this year with 30,000 MQMs.

To calculate rollover MQMs, subtract your status tier requirement from your 2022 total MQMs.

Unfortunately, MQSs and MQDs don’t roll over. But if you’re looking to accrue MQDs for a fraction of the normal price, check out our guide on earning MQDs with partner airlines. That’s how one TPG staffer largely requalified for Diamond Medallion with a trip to South Africa.

Rollover MQMs are currently posting in our surveyed SkyMiles accounts.

United Airlines 2023 kick-off PQPs

ZACH GRIFF/THE POINTS GUY

Before we shift to hotel status, here’s a reminder for those who qualified for United status. You’ll receive a bonus Premier Qualifying Points (PQPs) deposit based on the status you earned in 2022. Here’s what you can expect:

Premier Silver: 500 PQPs.
Premier Gold: 1,000 PQPs.
Premier Platinum: 1,500 PQPs.
Premier 1K: 2,500 PQPs.

The PQP deposit will help you requalify for status. Here’s what you’ll need to earn this year to earn United status:

Tier
PQPs + Premier Qualifying Flights (PQFs)
Only PQPs

Premier Silver
4,000 PQPs + 12 PQFs
5,000 PQP

Premier Gold
8,000 PQPs + 24 PQFs
10,000 PQP

Premier Platinum
12,000 PQPs + 36 PQFs
15,000 PQP

Premier 1K
18,000 PQPs + 54 PQFs
24,000 PQP

United will also provide a PQP deposit in 2024 for the status you earn in 2023.

In our tests, United is yet to make its 2023 PQP deposits in its Premier member MileagePlus accounts.

Hilton rollover nights

KYLE OLSEN/THE POINTS GUY

Hilton rolls over any excess nights you earned above your status requirements starting with its entry-level status. Here’s what it takes to earn Hilton status this year:

Silver: 10 nights or four stays or 25,000 base points.
Gold: 40 nights or 20 stays or 75,000 base points.
Diamond: 60 nights or 30 stays or 120,000 base points.

Last year, however, the status requirements were reduced. Silver required seven nights, Gold required 28 nights, and top-tier Diamond status could be earned with 42 nights. And since Hilton rolls over any nights in excess of your status requirement (note, only nights roll over, not stays or base points), you could be well on your way to requalifying for status in 2023 without stepping foot into a Hilton lobby this year.

For example, if you earned 38 nights last year (10 nights above the requirement for Gold), you would have 10 rollover nights this year. To calculate rollover nights, subtract the 2022 elite night requirement from your 2022 elite nights.

Alternatively, you can earn Diamond status by holding the Hilton Honors American Express Aspire Card.

The information for the Hilton Honors American Express Aspire Card has been collected independently by The Points Guy. The card details on this page have not been reviewed or provided by the card issuer.

At the time of writing, Hilton rollover nights are yet to post in our tested accounts.

Hyatt credit card nights

KYLE OLSEN/THE POINTS GUY

Requalifying for Globalist is one of my status priorities this year. Here’s what it takes to earn Hyatt status this year:

Discoverist: 10 elite nights or 25,000 base points ($5,000 in Hyatt spending). Or, hold either of Hyatt’s credit cards.
Explorist: 30 elite nights or 50,000 base points ($10,000 in Hyatt spending).
Globalist: 60 elite nights or 100,000 base points ($20,000 in Hyatt spending).

World of Hyatt offers the World of Hyatt Credit Card and the World of Hyatt Business Credit Card.

With the World of Hyatt credit card, you automatically get five tier-qualifying nights each year. You’re also eligible to earn two additional tier-qualifying night credits for every $5,000 you spend on the card.

The business card offers five elite nights for every $10,000 that you spend on the card annually.

In the accounts we tested, Hyatt credit card nights haven’t yet been posted.

IHG rollover nights

KYLE OLSEN/THE POINTS GUY

Like Hilton, IHG One Rewards rolls over any qualifying nights in excess of Gold, Platinum and Diamond Elite. A notable exception is Silver Elite, so any nights earned in excess of Silver Elite (between 11 and 19 nights) won’t roll over.

Rollover nights are valid for up to one calendar year. Here’s what it takes to earn IHG One Rewards status this year:

Silver Elite: 10 nights.
Gold Elite: 20 nights or 40,000 elite qualifying points.
Platinum Elite: 40 nights or 60,000 elite qualifying points.
Diamond Elite: 70 nights or 120,000 elite qualifying points.

Let’s assume you earned 62 elite qualifying nights in 2022. Since that’s 22 nights in excess of Platinum Elite, IHG will roll over 22 elite qualifying nights. That means that you’ll qualify for at least Gold Elite this year.

These rollover nights have started to post to member accounts per our tests.

Marriott credit card nights

KYLE OLSEN/THE POINTS GUY

Finally, like with Hyatt, some Marriott Bonvoy members earn elite nights just for holding a Marriott cobranded card. Here’s what it takes to earn Marriott Bonvoy status this year:

Silver Elite: 10 elite nights.
Gold Elite: 25 elite nights.
Platinum Elite: 50 elite nights.
Titanium Elite: 75 elite nights.
Ambassador Elite: 100 elite nights (plus $23,000 in annual qualifying spending).

My colleague has written a complete guide to earning Marriott Bonvoy status from cobranded credit cards, but I’ll highlight that you can earn up to 40 elite nights per year from credit cards — 15 nights from a business card and up to 25 nights from a personal card like the Marriott Bonvoy Brilliant™ American Express® Card. That’s just 35 nights away from Titanium Elite status.

In our tests, Marriott credit card nights have already been posted.

Bottom line

While no one likes seeing their elite status metrics reset to zero, some programs give you a head start. So far, it appears that Marriott is the only program that has already posted its credit card nights.

We always recommend auditing your loyalty accounts, but consider waiting until the end of the month before contacting your loyalty program about missing elite status rollovers, deposits or credit card nights.

Not ‘Made in America,’ but close

January 4, 2023 Published by Tara D. Sonenshine, Opinion Contributor

Just In | The Hill

In all your gift buying this season, how much of what you purchased was “Made in America”? Often, some part of a product comes from somewhere else in the world — China, Vietnam, Malaysia or the Philippines.

But more products are being manufactured with parts from neighboring Mexico. It’s called “near-shoring,” and it’s the latest example of corporate America moving its production of goods and services closer to home to get-around reliance on China.

In 2021, hundreds of foreign companies announced they were expanding or building export factories in Mexico, including ones you have heard of such as Unilever, Walmart and Mattel, and some you might not have like Dana Inc. and Denso Corporation. General Motors just announced 5,000 new jobs opening at its plant in northern Mexico.

To give you an idea of the scale, U.S. companies are expected to invest $40 billion in Mexico between now and 2024.

During the first 10 months of last year, Mexico exported $382 billion worth of goods to the United States, an increase of more than 20 percent over the same period in 2021, according to U.S. Census data. Since 2019, American imports of Mexican goods have swelled by more than one-fourth.

In 2021, American investors put more money into Mexico – buying companies and financing projects – than into China, according to an analysis by the McKinsey Global Institute.

The phenomenon of relying on our neighbor to fill orders for American goods was predicted more than decade ago in a report by the National Bureau of Economic Research, which estimated in 2010 that Mexico could add as much value in the manufacturing process of countries in East Asia.

But it took a global pandemic, supply chain nightmares and a deterioration in U.S.-China relations to force the move south.

When President Trump imposed harsh tariffs on China in 2018, to reduce the U.S. trade deficit with China, many thought they would disappear with the election of a Democratic administration. But the tax on over 10,000 Chinese goods has remained in place as President Biden has sanctioned China and worked to reduce its competitive edge in technology.

China’s “Zero COVID” policy has also pushed nations like America to look around the world for other places to help with manufacturing. The growing rivalry between Washington and Beijing may define the year ahead, particularly as a COVID test requirement for Chinese travelers to the United States takes effect, and the new Congress promises to investigate the origins of COVID-19 in China.

Most Americans are not paying attention to trade. But they know that products have many components and sources and that we can’t make things all by ourselves anymore. And, interestingly, many more of our citizens are relocating to Mexico than ever before in a remote work sea change. Why? It’s warm, it’s cheap and it’s close by. And you can work there for up to six months on a tourist visa.

The big question now is whether Mexico can rise to the occasion as a new partner given its own internal difficulties. Its recent prison outbreak, its immigration problems at the border and its on-again, off-again economy, which has observers worried about putting too many eggs in the Mexican basket.

The reliance on Mexico is long overdue, based on the map alone. But there still needs to be a trade strategy for the Asia-Pacific region given the need for computer chips and the strategic value of trade in a major export market. If China senses that we are pulling away, even though we say we are not decoupling, they will look for other options as well.

With the global economy so unsteady, there is no guarantee that the Mexican peso will stay stable in 2023. But after 200 years of diplomatic relations, it is good to see a good neighbor making strides.

Tara D. Sonenshine is former U.S. under secretary of state for public diplomacy. She is the Edward R. Murrow Professor of Practice at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.

International, Opinion, china trade, trade policy, US-Mexico border Read More

Modelo beer maker set to deliver a strong Q3, as the Club holding dominates the high-end market

January 4, 2023 Published by Paulina Likos

US Top News and Analysis

Wall Street expects alcoholic beverage producer Constellation Brands (STZ) to deliver solid quarterly earnings on Thursday, driven by strong sales of its specialty beer offerings — a high-end segment that has made Constellation a growth leader in the market. When the Club holding reports fiscal third-quarter 2023 results before the opening bell on Thursday, analysts expect earnings-per-share to come in at $2.9 a share, up 16.9% from last year, while total revenue should climb 3 % year-over-year, to $2.39 billion, according to estimates by Refinitiv. U.S.-based Constellation’s growth in the beer market has been propelled by its 3 Mexican beer brands — Modelo Especial, Corona and Pacifico. The company also owns a range of other high-quality alcohol brands, including Svedka vodka and Kim Crawford sauvignon blanc. Constellation is currently the No. 2 supplier in the U.S. wine market. Despite the positive earnings estimates, signs of softer demand for Modelo has had some investors worried. Shares of Constellation have fallen roughly 5% over the past month, to around $234 apiece. Still, analysts don’t expect a recent slump in Modelo volumes to weigh on the long-term growth of Constellation’s beer offerings. “While we expect near-term beer trends to remain somewhat volatile…given a seasonal lull in consumption, varying promotional cadences across brands, and shifts in trade inventories…we do not at this point expect STZ’s premium beer portfolio to be at an outsized disadvantage,” analysts at Deutsche Bank wrote in a recent research note. Meanwhile, analysts at RBC Capital wrote in a note late last month: “We acknowledge slowing volume trends in the near term, but do not believe it changes STZ’s ability to deliver 7-9% beer revenue growth in FY 2023 and beyond.” And analysts at Wedbush don’t see “downside risk to current top line or operating income” for Constellation’s fiscal third. For the company’s part, Constellation CFO Garth Hankinson called the high-end beer consumer “resilient” during a Morgan Stanley conference last month. “Most consumers see Constellation’s beverages as a staple, not a discretionary item,” he said. The Club take The recent short-term volatility in Constellation’s fast-growing core beer brand, Modelo Especial, naturally sparks concerns for the company’s market share position — but this doesn’t shake our confidence in Constellation’s ability to dominate the high-end beer market. Modelo Especial has consistently been a market-share gainer. The brand is the fastest-growing beer by sales in the U.S., holds the No. 1 spot in the country’s high-end beer market and the No. 2 in the overall beer market, and has been the No.1 share gainer among Constellation’s beer portfolio during the company’s last 6 consecutive quarters, according to management. Constellation’s high level of cash generation allows it to allocate capital to pay down debt and increase buybacks and dividends for shareholders, a key factor of our investment case. Moreover, Constellation’s recent decision to eliminate its dual-class share structure puts the company in a strong position to deliver for all shareholders. We bought 25 shares of STZ in late December, taking advantage of the stock’s recent pullback. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long STZ. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

Trucks with Constellation Brands Inc. Corona and Modelo beer sit during a delivery in the Zona Rosa neighborhood in Mexico City, Mexico.

Susana Gonzalez | Bloomberg | Getty Images

JPMorgan’s top picks for 2023, including two stocks coming off their worst performances in decades

January 4, 2023 Published by Alex Harring

US Top News and Analysis

JPMorgan is warning there could be further downward pressure on the market in 2023 before a recovery is felt. But the firm says there are still stocks to invest in. The firm expects the S & P 500 to re-test lows seen in 2022 as the Federal Reserve “overtightens” while trying to cool inflation. But JPMorgan analysts said that sell-off, paired with other indicators of a contracting economy, could push the central bank to start pivoting, in turn starting a recovery that may bring the S & P 500 to 4,200 points by the end of 2023. That’s nearly 10% higher than where the broad index closed Tuesday. “2022 was a year of macro and geopolitical shocks with sharply higher global rates and USD, stubbornly high inflation, China headwinds, and the largest conflict in Europe since WWII,” analysts said in a note to clients. “Investors responded to these events by derating S & P 500 P/E as much as 7x while some speculative growth segments have crashed 70-80% from highs. Although fundamentals have been resilient throughout these shocks, we do not expect this year’s constructive growth backdrop to persist in 2023.” JPMorgan put together a list of stocks it recommends in the challenging investing landscape. Here are 10 names that made the list: Amazon lost nearly 50% in 2022, making it the biggest one-year loss for the stock since 2000 . The sell-off came as investors rotated out of growth and into value as rising interest rates elevated concerns of a recession. As a company, Amazon was hit with a slowdown in sales with consumers shifting spending to services or pulling back entirely due to inflationary pressures. Yet JPMorgan analysts believe revenue growth can re-accelerate due to higher stock levels and faster delivery speed. Analysts also pointed to the possibility of continued penetration within groceries and the cloud that could give the company an additional boost. The firm has a $130 price target, implying the stock will gain 51.5% from Tuesday’s close. Target also made the list, even as market observers grow increasingly wary of retail stocks amid economic contraction. The company turned to promotions this year to move gluts of unwanted inventory while trying to contend with the same shifting consumer spending habits that hurt Amazon. The stock dropped more than 35% in 2022 for its worst year in decades. JPMorgan set a price target of $201, which shows a potential upside of 32.5% over Tuesday’s close. Disney ‘s stock tumbled nearly 44% in 2022, a dramatic year for the entertainment giant punctuated by the replacement of CEO Bob Chapek with his predecessor, Bob Iger . JPMorgan set a price target of $84.17, which implies the stock should gain 51.7% in the next 12 months. JPMorgan is bullish on the growth stock, calling Disney its “favorite Media name long term.” The firm says it expects a more “realistic” Disney+ subscriber target for 2024 and believes direct-to-consumer losses could halve by the fiscal third quarter. It also said Disney could accelerate buying Comcast’s stake in Hulu to provide more flexibility within its streaming business. Las Vegas Sands is expected to post a second year of gains in 2023 after getting beat down during the first two years of the pandemic. JPMorgan’s $55 price target reflects an 11.5% upside. The stock gained nearly 28% in 2022. JPMorgan said the stock should rise as China moves closer to a full reopening given the company’s operations in Macao. The Chinese government said it would remove quarantine requirements for inbound travelers starting Jan. 8 .