Bank of America downgrades Chevron, calls energy stock a ‘victim of its own success’

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Chevron likely won’t see as large of gains as it did in 2022, Bank of America warned. Analyst Doug Leggate downgraded the stock to neutral from buy on Friday. His $191 price target implies an upside of just 9%. The stock gained more than 50% in 2022 as energy prices soared following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Leggate said another year with huge upside is unlikely with Brent crude futures expected to trade around $80 per barrel. “Put simply we see CVX as a victim of its own success – but with < 10% upside to our estimate of fair value, we believe the appropriate rating vs North American peers is Neutral,” Leggate said in a note to clients. Still, Leggate said Chevron leads oil producers in capital discipline and has been able to execute large-scale projects following the 2015 drop in oil prices. The company has a legacy position” in the Permian Basin in the Southwest U.S., he said, with an advantaged royalty position that has improved returns. He also said the acquisition of Noble Energy would “add long life production with options built around regional exploration.” But management has been viewed as increasingly leaning on mergers and acquisitions to support dividends, he said. Leggate said having an absence of material long-term growth in cash flow would put a ceiling on absolute value. Meanwhile, Leggate named Exxon Mobil his top idea in the sector for 2023. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.